Six reasons the Hollywood strike could change the 2008 election

Here in the United States, we’re about two weeks away from living on a restricted media diet of nothing but reruns, reality TV, and YouTube. The Writers Guild of America is still on strike, and the networks are running out of new content fast. It’s anybody’s guess how long the strike will last. So, I’m wondering what kind of effect a stillborn fall TV season could have on the presidential election? Here are some guesses:

1. This year, fewer people will watch campaign ads
   Long considered the most powerful tool in the candidate’s toolbox, the 30-second spot will likely lose ground to viral online ads. Yes, tens of millions of Americans will still watch TV, but as their shows run dry, thousands of others will opt for the internet, Netflix, or the X-Box. Who does this benefit? Probably the frontrunners, because the other candidates will have less of a chance to go on the attack.
2. More people will watch the debates
   In 2005, many FOX networks ran American Idol up against the State of the Union address. Guess which won the ratings war? This year, there will be fewer arrows in the networks’ quivers, so they’ll be unlikely to go after such meager prey as a presidential debate. They’ll want to save their best blockbuster shows for sweeps. So, debate performance will matter more than ever before. Who does this benefit? The best podium-slappers: Huckabee, McCain, Obama, Biden, and Edwards. 
3. No 24
   Jack Bauer won’t be whipping out the waterboard this year. FOX has put 24, its action-packed security thriller, on indefinite hold. Who does this help? The Democrats and John McCain. And evildoers everywhere.
4. No Leno or Letterman
   Arnold famously announced his candidacy for California governor on the Tonight Show. Fred Thompson not-so-famously followed suit. The late-night talk shows are a great forum for humanizing candidates, and right now, they’re all sitting dark and empty. Who this hurts: Hillary and Romney, who both have a “robot sent from the future specifically designed to win the U.S. presidency” quality about them. They would both benefit from some humanizing time on Dave’s couch.
5. No “Indecision 2008,” or Saturday Night Live takedowns of the candidates
   Would the 2000 or 2004 elections have been so close without the Daily Show’s award-winning campaign coverage, or Will Ferrell’s George W. Bush impression? No way. Shortly before going off the air, Saturday Night Live took a parting shot at the Democrats. The Clinton camp should be thankful that Amy Poehler’s Hillary wig is locked away in storage—for now. Who this helps: Just about everyone.
6. Voters might be better informed
   Last week, Nightline beat out reruns of Leno and Letterman in the ratings from Wednesday through Thursday. You can bet Dateline, 20/20 and 60 Minutes are all putting additional shows into production to help fill the vacuum left in prime-time programming. Assuming that some of those shows will cover the campaigns, we might just have a better-informed electorate. 

Taking TV out of the election will probably be a great equalizer. Suddenly, the ad dollars spent on Iowa and New Hampshire airtime are less valuable, and the underdogs have a chance to harness the Internet, the debates and other nontraditional outlets to get their messages across.

So what’s a campaign media strategist to do? Take advantage of other, nontraditional broadcasts where your candidate could be featured. Expect more candidates popping up at sporting events, on daytime talk shows, or even on the reality circuit. Will Mike Huckabee do a guest appearance on the Biggest Loser? We can only hope.

(FP‘s Joshua Keating helped research this post.)