Daniel W. Drezner

Sweet Jesus. Sweet, sweet, here-before-everyone Jesus

According to Jacob T. Levy, Philip Tetlock won this year’s Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Tetlock won for Expert Political Judgment, a book that I blogged about a bit on this hallowed web site (see Rodger Payne as well.). A key point that Tetlock makes is that experts aren’t any better at making ...

According to Jacob T. Levy, Philip Tetlock won this year’s Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Tetlock won for Expert Political Judgment, a book that I blogged about a bit on this hallowed web site (see Rodger Payne as well.). A key point that Tetlock makes is that experts aren’t any better at making political predictions than non-experts. I bring this up now because it’s really, really important to remember that there is hard data confirming Tetlock’s assertion when you think about the non-experts in the world. Like, for example, these precious few seconds from The View, courtesy of Crooked Timber’s Kieran Healy:

Look, the really important thing — as I told my son sometime this week — is that the Star Wars saga took place before anything discussed in the video clip. Dinosaurs too.

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