Did an oil-company CEO just endorse peak-oil theory?
On Tuesday, CNBC’s popular stock-picker Jim Cramer discussed oil supply constraints at length, explaining why he likes ConocoPhillips because it’s one of the few firms that really thinks oil prices are staying high and is investing accordingly. Most companies tend to evaluate projects for viability at around $40 per barrel of crude. That’s mainly because ...
On Tuesday, CNBC's popular stock-picker Jim Cramer discussed oil supply constraints at length, explaining why he likes ConocoPhillips because it's one of the few firms that really thinks oil prices are staying high and is investing accordingly. Most companies tend to evaluate projects for viability at around $40 per barrel of crude. That's mainly because the rise in oil prices has been moving higher than the supply-demand fundamentals suggest they should, which we have discussed recently (here and here). Cramer thinks ConocoPhillips is "ahead of the curve" and is well-positioned to take advantage of the current market.
On Tuesday, CNBC’s popular stock-picker Jim Cramer discussed oil supply constraints at length, explaining why he likes ConocoPhillips because it’s one of the few firms that really thinks oil prices are staying high and is investing accordingly. Most companies tend to evaluate projects for viability at around $40 per barrel of crude. That’s mainly because the rise in oil prices has been moving higher than the supply-demand fundamentals suggest they should, which we have discussed recently (here and here). Cramer thinks ConocoPhillips is “ahead of the curve” and is well-positioned to take advantage of the current market.
In making his case, Cramer read a quote from a recent presentation by ConocoPhillips CEO Jim Mulva that I think is significant coming from an industry leader, given that is sounds a lot like a measured endorsement of peak-oil theory:
Talking a little bit about the supply challenge. This is a slide that’s been prepared by International Energy Agency and it just shows if you take all of the oil production around the world today, say, 86 million barrels a day, the natural decline on average is about 8% a year.
“So, if we’re going to stay with 86 million barrels a day, we’ve got to be out there adding 6 or 7 million just to stay flat. So the question is, where is that all going to come from when you see Saudi, Arabia saying they’re going to go to 12 million to 12.5 million and maybe up to 15 million barrels a day? How is this going to happen? It’s not so important just what I think or say, but I know we’ve been saying for the better part of nearly 12 months. Personally, I don’t think we’re going to see — for three reasons, I don’t think we’re going to see the supply go over 100 million barrels a day. The reason for that is, where is it all going to come from?
“Second, it’s going to be from a climate change greenhouse gas emission? I’m not so sure that the world, even if you could get up to those levels, would allow us it be done. So we have — Demand maybe going up, but it’s going to be constrained by supply.”
The transcript of the presentation is unfortunately not available online, as it comes from the November 2007 Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference.
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