Seven Questions: Israel’s Guest of Honor

JACK GUEZ/AFP/Getty ImagesWarm welcome: President Bush has a large fan base in Israel.

Foreign Policy: Youve twice served as Israels ambassador to the United States. Can you give us an idea of the nature of meetings between U.S. and Israeli officials? Are they formal and structured, or informal?

Zalman Shoval: It depends on the people on both sides. If you take former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir and former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, it was quite formal, but if you take people who are more personable, like former U.S. President Bill Clinton on the one side or former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin on the other side, it can be more informal. Certainly the meetings between former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, if they were with Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, were very formal. But if they were with President Clinton, it was a much freer atmosphere. It depends on the level. If the ambassador has developed a good relationship, it can be very informal, like between myself and former U.S. peace negotiator Dennis Ross. It depends on the personalities of the characters on both sides.

FP: What do you think President Bush is hoping to accomplish on his trip?

ZS: People in Israel are asking themselves whether he comes as a cheerleader for the process, especially for Prime Minister Ehud Olmertwho needs some cheering upor whether he comes as an umpire. He probably comes as both. He wants to get into the process, but I think he has become more realistic about it. In the last couple of days he said that the United States is not going to impose any timeline; he just hopes that it will make progress. He said that what he believes the Annapolis process could or should accomplish is to draw up the outline of a future Palestinian state, which is very different than having a Palestinian state established by January 2009.

FP: It seems as if he has lowered the expectations for this trip.

ZS: I think he definitely lowered the expectations. Looking from the outside and the inside, this is probably the correct attitude to take. Its almost inconceivable to think that the so-called core issues can be resolved anytime soon, certainly not within the year, probably not for even longer. For Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to agree to do away with the right of return, which Israel will insist on, for him, is politically impossible. And for Olmert to agree to all matters relating to Jerusalem, the Temple Mount, and other things is impossible. Olmert has a coalition of two parties that have told him in no uncertain terms that if he is going to negotiate the core issues, they are going to bolt the government. This means that by January 2009, were not going to have a final agreement but an election campaign in Israel.

FP: There are reports that the Israeli public is ambivalent about Bushs visit. Do you get that sense? How is the president perceived in Israel right now?

ZS: Public opinion is the last taxi driver you talk to. First of all, we have to look at this on two different levels. Theres no doubt that President Bush, with the whole range of Israeli public opinions on the right and leftIm not talking about the extremesis a very popular president, very well liked. People consider him a friend to Israel, not just because he is a friend to Israel, but because, whatever the missteps may have been in Iraq, people in Israel appreciate that Bush was the first international leader to recognize the danger of jihad, or Muslim fundamentalism and terrorism. Israelis feel as if we are right on the front line of that.

On another level, theres a new public opinion poll out saying that the majority of Israelis and the majority of Palestinians think the Annapolis process is going to fail. On the Israeli side, there are a few different opinions about Annapolis. One, people think the merits of the core issues are negative from Israels point of view, whether from ideological perspectives or for security reasons. After the Gaza withdrawal, most Israelis say, If we dont stay in the West Bank, at least in regards to security, military, and civilian infrastructure, the West Bank is going to turn into another Gaza.

The other school of thought is We are very much for Annapolis. We want it to succeed. But we realize that theres not much chance that this Israeli government, being as weak as it is, and the Palestinian leadership, being as weak as it is, can really move things forward. Another group says, All this doesnt matter one way or another. Lets not get excited. Nothing is going to come of it anyway.

With regard to Bush and his team, there is a feelingmaybe more with regard to the secretary of state than the president himselfthat there are other considerations involved, whether it is to get Arab support for American interests in Iraq, or if it is for their own personal and historic record once they are out of office.

FP: Will the ongoing violence in Gaza overshadow the visit?

ZS: It could, but I dont think so. The Israeli government and many Israelis believe Israel is holding back from military action because of the visit and because of the Annapolis process. Everyday, rockets and mortar shells are raining down. How long are we, the people living here, going to pay the price? I dont want to speak for the leaders of the Palestinian Authority, but I think they would say they are angry and basically its the fault of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. So in my view, its not going to be an obstacle to the Bush visit.

FP: Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated in recent days following a near clash between Iranian ships and the U.S. Navy in the Strait of Hormuz. How is this story playing in Tel Aviv?

ZS: Its not making a big impact. Funnily enough, Israelis seem to be more interestedbecause we are all avid politicosin New Hampshire, which gets a lot more exposure in the press than the thing in the Arab Gulf.

FP: So Israelis are paying close attention to the U.S. elections? Who are they favoring?

ZS: Theyre following them very, very closely. Its almost unbelievable. Its as if elections are being held in Israel, both on TV, the radio, and the written press. Its because of the closeness of the relationship. Most Israelis are sophisticated and understand that the relationship between Israel and the United States is a basic strategic asset and a political fact. People remember in the not-too-distant past when there were Israeli governments that had confrontations with American administrations. The public didnt like that and voted them out of office. People are definitely interested into put it a bit crudelywho is better for Israel. On that count, I think the general opinion is that most Israelis prefer the Republican candidates, followed by Hillary Clinton. People just dont know Barack Obama. Theyve seen some statements from him they may be a bit worried about. All the things that are being said in the primaries really dont count that much. But Israelis are fascinated.

Zalman Shoval is a former Israeli ambassador to the United States. He is currently president of the Israel-America Chamber of Commerce.

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