Stopping Climate Change in Mid-Air: A Modest Proposal

PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty ImagesTwo thumbs up: The Bush administrations fiendishly climate-change policy at work.

Did you know that the Bush administration is already starting to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions? On December 11, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff announced his top-secret plan for saving the planet from global warming. Debuting at Washingtons Dulles Airport, and then being rolled out to all ports of entry to the United States in 2008, all incoming aliens between 17 and 79 must now have all 10 of their fingerprints electronically scanned and recorded. What does this have to do with reducing carbon emissions? Allow me to explain.

The United States has been fingerprinting aliens as part of US-VISIT, a global biometric security screening program run by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), for yearsbut historically, it took only two prints. The ostensible reason for implementing the 10-print as opposed to 2-print plan is to be able to better spot false identities. But when you look at whats actually been accomplished by fingerprinting aliens, its clear that mistaken identity cant be the real purpose. Since 2000, according to Secretary Chertoff, the U.S. government has stopped more than 2,000 people from entering the country because their fingerprints didnt match. But the United States has more than 400 million visitors a year, including returning Americansor roughly 2.8 billion visitors since starting the program. That translates to a success rate of well over one in a million.

Now, lets be fair. Chertoff wants all 10 prints so that DHS can compare latent printsfingerprints taken from the fieldto the fingerprints taken at the border. Before, all a clever terrorist had to do was not use his thumb while handling his bomb. Now, he or she has to wear rubber gloves! And the one in a million rate? Well, that is also a bit unfair; the United States doesnt fingerprint Canadians, Mexicans, U.S. citizens, green-card holders, or illegal aliens. So the success rate is probably a bit higher than one in a million. Even so, there is no reason DHS would be wasting government resources in such a futile search. Remember those 2,000 people who were stopped from getting in? American taxpayers spend more than $300 million a year just to run the US-VISIT program, or about $1 million for each person stopped. And that doesnt include the infrastructure costs, which have been estimated at $15 billion. It just doesnt make any sense.

That is, unless there is a brilliant, devious scheme afoot. After all, the fingerprinting has already accomplished one worthy goal: It has gotten the Europeans in a hissy fit. With the recent decline in the dollar, Americans ought to be seeing hordes of Europeans flying west to take advantage of the bargains. But while the number of international visitors is starting to recover from its 2001 low point, travelers from Europe are not returning in the same numbers. Many whine about Soviet-style border-control officials and say theyre being treated like criminals. They also complain about how all this fingerprinting jams up the lines and makes everyone testy. Europeans are being replaced by visitors from India and China, who are perhaps more comfortable with Soviet-style border guards and long lines.

This is assuredly for the best. Europeans are so cheap they have entire countries, such as Luxembourg and Andorra, that exist only to sell discounted products to their neighbors. Imagine what would happen if they realized that the worlds largest consumer economy is having a 50-percent-off sale. Imagine the chaos in malls across the United States as non-English speaking Europeans tried to navigate parking spaces and checkout lines and buy what should rightfully be Americans post-Christmas discounts. And imagine if German- and French-speaking entrepreneurs had more opportunities to invest in U.S. assets, pushing up stock prices for the rest of us. Without the fingerprints in place, the prospect of Europeans streaming across our borders, armed with cash, could be a lot more alarming.

Which brings us back to carbon emissions. It is clear that this new measure isnt about security. And in todays high-tech global economy, its nearly impossible to keep unwanted euros out of the U.S. economy. Europeans who want to purchase American goods or services dont have to travel in order to do so. So, the hidden purpose of the 10-print rule must be to annoy Europeans so much that they stop flying to the United States, thereby reducing carbon emissions.

Granted, aviation travel worldwide accounts for only 2 percent of all carbon emissions. But eliminating it entirely could have a bigger impact than the Kyoto Protocol ever did. Heres how it can be done. Some of the busiest and most lucrative segments are the trans-Atlantic flights. If DHS can reduce demand on those flights by scaring away Europeans (and hey, why not include the Japanese in this, too?), the department can help drive struggling U.S. airlines into further financial distress by eliminating their most profitable routes. And fewer flights means fewer emissions. Zero trans-oceanic flights would be the ultimate goal.

What kind of effect might even partial success have on carbon emissions? Heres a back-of-the napkin estimate. Since 2000, theres been a dramatic decline in visitors from the 27 (mostly European) countries that participate in the Visa Waiver Program. Using 2000 as a baseline, there are more than 22 million missing visitors. By not taking trans-Atlantic flights (and flights from Australia and Japan), they have saved more than 60 million tons of carbon dioxide from being emitted by airplanes. By comparison, in 2006, we saved just 45 million tons of CO2 by installing windmills worldwide.

Whats even better is that this brilliant climate-change plan is being adopted globally. Japan has announced it is starting to fingerprint all visitors, and even the Europeans are getting into the act. If other countries begin to scare away the millions of Americans who travel abroad by fingerprinting them, too, a more carbon-free future surely awaits.