Seven Questions: Primary Lessons

Getty ImagesConflicted: Democratic voters are having a tough time choosing between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Foreign Policy: Is John McCain on the path to win the Republican nomination?

Andrew Kohut: Hes the front runner. Its not written that hes going to win, but hes certainly coming out of Feb. 5 in better shape than the other two. Much better shape.

FP: Everyones saying that the Democratic race is going to be a slug-out that wont be over until spring. Who do you think benefits from a drawn-out race, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton? And does it hurt Democrats if race continues through April?

AK: I dont think that either candidate particularly benefits from a long, drawn-out race. Its just a matter of the way it goes. It could be that Hillary benefits a little bit more now if this were not proportional votingif it was winner take allbecause she won such a large share of the big states yesterday. But as we go forward, I dont think it makes a particular difference for either of the candidates.

We dont see any signs that Democrats are getting disillusioned. As a matter of fact, it may keep them on the front page longer, and in the publics consciousnessas long as it doesnt get acrimonious.

FP: Why do you think Hillary did so much better in the big states than she did elsewhere?

AK: Because she had big leads in these states, which have been traditionally Democratic, and many core Democrats in these places like the Clintons. But Obama whittled them down to a considerable degree and he did quite well in terms of momentum. Momentum was with him and he was able to reduce the margins in many of these states.

FP: You do a lot of polling and analysis of voters views on the issues. Isnt it obvious that the election is going to be about the economy?

AK: Even though the issues are motivating participation, and we certainly have the Democrats engaged, theres not a lot of correlation between what issues the Democrats say are important to them and who theyre voting for. You see people in the exit polls saying that theyre for immediate withdrawal [in Iraq] rather than a timetable for withdrawal and they are just as likely to be Clinton supporters as they are Obama supporters. The debate about who did what and said what in particular hasnt had much of an impact, and its not likely that the economy will become a decisive factor within the nominating races. The general election could be entirely different.

FP: Youve mentioned before that the polls are very unstable this year on the Democratic side. Do you think voters are just confused?

AK: I think voters are conflicted. I dont think theyre confused. Obviously they know who these candidates are. Theyre paying a lot of attention, more attention than usual. But there are so many cross-pressures, reasons to like both Obama and Clinton. Different groups, in particular white males, have had a problem with Hillary. On the other hand, whites have not voted for Obama at very high rates. So theres a lot of cross-pressuring going on.

FP: If we go to the general election and it becomes McCain-Obama or McCain-Clinton, does the role of race or gender increase?

AK: Its conceivable that gender and race may become an even bigger issue in the general election. But then we could also have the issue of age. If McCain is the candidate, we know people have concerns about voting for a candidate in his 70s. We have so many unprecedented situations with regard to candidate qualities in this [election] that its hard to say whether one will trump another.

FP: Your organization has reported that public interest in news about Iraq and terrorism is declining. When Rudy Giuliani flamed out in the Republican primary, a lot of people said it meant that 9/11 has really lost its punch as a political issue. Do you think that thats true? And do you think that for McCainwho says the election is going to be about defeating Islamic extremism–do you think Iraq and terrorism are going to work in his favor in the general campaign?

AK: I think the fact that there is rising concern about the economy and a recession doesnt preclude one of the candidates from making a case on one of the issues that is also important to the voters, but doesnt have as much concern. If you ask people to rate the issues, terrorism is still up there. If you ask people what theyre thinking about, the economy is way up there. As for Iraq, its an issue thats going to help the Democrats. How much it helps the Democrats is going to depend on how things are going. If it gets back at the top of the newscast, it will certainly become a tougher issue for the Republicans.

Andrew Kohut is president of the Pew Research Center in Washington, D.C.