State Department gets another election wrong

Syndicated columnist Robert Novak asks why the U.S. government is still going to bat for Pervez Musharraf after the Pakistani president was so clearly rejected at the polls: Overwhelming repudiation of President Pervez Musharraf by Pakistan’s voters did not immediately dilute the Bush administration’s support for him. On the contrary, the first election returns were ...

Syndicated columnist Robert Novak asks why the U.S. government is still going to bat for Pervez Musharraf after the Pakistani president was so clearly rejected at the polls:

Syndicated columnist Robert Novak asks why the U.S. government is still going to bat for Pervez Musharraf after the Pakistani president was so clearly rejected at the polls:

Overwhelming repudiation of President Pervez Musharraf by Pakistan’s voters did not immediately dilute the Bush administration’s support for him. On the contrary, the first election returns were barely in Monday night when the U.S. government began pressing victorious opposition leaders not to impeach the former military strongman. […]

Since Bhutto’s murder, Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher has antagonized Pakistan’s opposition leaders by insisting that Musharraf was committed to a ”good” election while in fact voting rolls were being rigged. Minimal election-day vote fraud is attributed to Musharraf’s weakness rather than strength. The army refused its cooperation, needed to really steal votes. According to Pakistani sources, the army high command was alarmed that Musharraf’s unpopularity had undermined public esteem for the military.

These changes apparently escaped the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, which on election eve reported to Washington that Musharraf’s Pakistan Muslim League-Q would do well enough to force a coalition government. Vote rigging probably cost the opposition 25 seats, mainly in Baluchistan — not enough to prevent a two-thirds majority by opposition parties that could vote impeachment in the lower house.

More on State’s pro-Musharraf maneuvering here. It’s not the first time in recent years the State Department has made a bad pre-election call. Condoleezza Rice admitted being surprised when she heard Hamas had won the Palestinian legislative elections in January 2006, despite plenty of signs that a groundswell of anger was brewing against Fatah. In fairness, these things are hard to predict. I, for one, expected Musharraf to do a better job with the cheating and thought there would be much more violence. But after the results are in, isn’t it time to accept reality?

… I should note that Novak is wrong about the two-thirds majority, which the anti-Musharraf forces don’t quite have.

More from Foreign Policy

Newspapers in Tehran feature on their front page news about the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.
Newspapers in Tehran feature on their front page news about the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.

Saudi-Iranian Détente Is a Wake-Up Call for America

The peace plan is a big deal—and it’s no accident that China brokered it.

Austin and Gallant stand at podiums side by side next to each others' national flags.
Austin and Gallant stand at podiums side by side next to each others' national flags.

The U.S.-Israel Relationship No Longer Makes Sense

If Israel and its supporters want the country to continue receiving U.S. largesse, they will need to come up with a new narrative.

Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Moscow Kremlin Wall in the Alexander Garden during an event marking Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Moscow Kremlin Wall in the Alexander Garden during an event marking Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow.

Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War

Moscow is grasping for meaning in a meaningless invasion.

An Iranian man holds a newspaper reporting the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, in Tehran on March 11.
An Iranian man holds a newspaper reporting the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, in Tehran on March 11.

How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests

And why there’s less to Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough than meets the eye.