Russia to recognize Abkhazia?

A senior EU official has told reporters that Russia may be preparing to recognize Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia:

There is a growing preoccupation and anxiety that Russia may be paving the way for recognition of Abkhazia," EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner said while reaffirming EU support for Georgia’s borders.

"Georgia’s territorial integrity has always been clearly supported by the EU… this is absolutely clear," she told a news conference before EU foreign ministers were due to discuss Georgia at their monthly meeting in Brussels.

"We will be discussing Georgia and… what can we do in order to support more strongly Georgia in a difficult situation."

Russia took a first step toward recognition last week when it lifted trade restrictions with the territory. It’s hard to see this as anything but cynical "Kosovo payback" against Georgia’s allies — the United States and the EU — that can only further destabalize an already volatile region. But since Abkhazia has been de facto independent since the early ’90s and meets most of international law’s minimum criteria for sovereignty, it will be interesting to see how Brussels and Washington will make the case that it is less deserving of statehood than Kosovo. We may be witnessing a return to the politically motivated recognition battles of the Cold War era.

The Russians may also be playing with fire by stirring up latent nationalism in the Caucasus — a policy that they may come to regret down the road.