Six Ways Not to Deal with Hamas

MOHAMMED ABED/AFP/Getty Images Undeterrable? Hamas presents Israeli leaders with options that range from bad to worse.

With only the occasional pause, the rain of Qassams aimed at Israels civilian population continues unabated. More than 3,000 of these primitive rockets have been launched against Israeli cities and towns since Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005. To understand how this affects Israelis, imagine the U.S. reaction if Hoboken were constantly shelling Manhattan, or picture the French capitals response to a steady barrage from the Paris suburbs. Its a situation few governments would tolerate, but frustrated Israeli policymakers face a menu of options that range from the merely bad to the even worse. Let us examine each of the alternatives in turn.

Topple Hamas

For the most part, this has been Israels policy. The Israeli government has pinned its hopes on its ability to weaken Hamas through economic sanctions, political isolation, and limited military strikes. So far, it has achieved the opposite. Hamas consolidated its hold on Gaza last June, then temporarily succeeded in lifting the economic siege in February, further increasing its popularity.

Some hope that a major Israeli operation designed to oust Hamas would lead to a power vacuum in which the Palestinian Authority can reestablish its rule, possibly with the assistance of an international force. It is highly unlikely, however, that Hamas can be overthrown and the prospects of the feckless, corrupt Authority restoring and maintaining its rule are minimal. More likely, todays near-chaos would become tomorrows total chaos.

Destroy Hamas Militarily

Israels military restraint to date has not been for lack of determination, but simply because an effective, military response, at an acceptable price, has yet to be found. For Hamas, economic and military deprivation are not unacceptable punishments, but a means to fan the flames, rally support, and undermine whatever minimal prospects for peace remain. An enemy that welcomes punishment beyond those that Israel will inflict is fundamentally undeterrable. Only a very large military operation may achieve some lasting benefit against it, but even this is unlikely to produce more than a brief respite. And after disengaging from Gaza, the last thing Israel wants to do is reoccupy it. Nor can the possibility that Hezbollah and even Syria will join the fray be discounted.

Talk to Hamas

Negotiations with an organization that explicitly avows Israels destruction at every opportunity are anathema to many Israelis. Political and moral questions aside, what could Israel and Hamas actually talk about? Is there anything short of voluntary national suicide that would satisfy Hamas? Other than a temporary ceasefire, now under discussion, all indications point to the contrary.

The United States, Europe, and even most Arab states, moreover, strongly oppose negotiating with Hamas. To do so would prove that terrorism, not diplomacy, is the way to gain Israeli concessions. It would also gravely undermine whatever residual legitimacy Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas still enjoys.

Hamass repeated proposal to negotiate a long-term ceasefire may ultimately be worth exploring. But its present conditions are entirely unacceptable. If Hamas had its way, Israel would have to cease all counterterrorist operations not only in Gaza, but the West Bank, as well the only thing that has kept Abbas in power and the rockets out of Tel Aviv.

Accelerate the Peace Talks

Some hope that a breakthrough in the post-Annapolis talks will provide Abbas with the wherewithal to depose Hamas and reestablish Fatah rule. Abbas, unlike Yasir Arafat before him, does seem genuinely committed to negotiations. All indications, however, suggest the current talks will lead nowhere. Hamas is in firm command of Gaza, while Abbas barely controls his presidential compound, let alone the West Bank. A major Israeli military operation in Gaza, or a Hamas takeover of the West Bank, are far more likely outcomes than a breakthrough to peace. The talks failure may only hasten Abbass downfall.

Boost Israels Defensive Capabilities

The Iron Dome anti-rocket defensive system is slated to be operational in approximately two years. Even if this ambitious deadline is met, no system is ever completely effective and in this case serious doubts persist. Rocket-makers will undoubtedly develop countermeasures that will make interception even more difficult. But for the Israeli civilians now under fire, modest success against the rockets is still unacceptable.

Get the Egyptians Involved

To be effective against Hamas, Egypt would have to greatly beef up its military efforts in Sinai and Gaza, which it is loath to do. Does Israel wish to further erode the demilitarization of Sinai, by allowing Egypt to deploy additional soldiers along Gaza? Even then, success would be far from assured. The recent breakdown of the Gaza border enabled terrorists to enter Sinai, increasing the risk of attacks along the Egyptian-Israeli border and heightening political friction between the two countries. A more active Egyptian role in Gaza could also provoke Egypts domestic Islamist groups, just as the country nears its own political succession. Do we wish to see anything happen that might further increase the prospect of a Muslim Brotherhood takeover after Mubarak?

So, Now What?

None of the above options appears to provide much hope against the Qassams. Hamas is unlikely to be toppled or destroyed, nor is it a viable negotiating partner. Neither Abbas nor the Egyptians can deliver security for Israel, and anti-rocket technology is in its infancy. Israelis are apparently in for a prolonged period of pain and frustration. Unpalatable as it may be, they may simply have no choice but to hunker down and live with the rocket threat until better options evolve. Public pressure will make it increasingly tough for Israel to hold back, but it should reject illusory military fixes that would only make matters worse. Israel is on the defensive now, but eventually it will develop an effective, if not hermetic, defensive system and a viable offensive strategy. When that happens, it will be fully justified in acting decisively.