Seven Questions: The Silent Tsunami

Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images Josette Sheeran: This is a silent tsunami, and one thats virtually hitting every developing nation on the earth.

Foreign Policy: It seems like attention to the global food crisis hadnt really reached critical mass until the past few weeks and months. Why is that?

Josette Sheeran: The World Food Program is like the canary in the coal mine. Because were dealing with food supply for the worlds most vulnerable, we felt it earlier on. Some institutions, like the International Food Policy Research Institute, have been warning that the dynamics of world food supply were getting very precarious. But I dont think it was until June, when prices went into an aggressive pattern of increase, that it started to get the worlds attention. And food riots that have broken out in 34 countries have certainly helped raise political awareness. Agriculture has not been a high priority for the top political leadership of the world, and these events are ensuring that leaders give agriculture the attention that it needs. But its taken some fairly dramatic events to do so.

FP: Do you feel like youve been getting the response that you wanted from policymakers, or is there still not enough realization of how bad the problem is?

JS: People understand that we may have a growing humanitarian crisis, but Im not sure that theres been a full realization of the kind of energy and investment we need in supply-side solutions. Were just beginning to see the realization that these solutions need to be combined with the emergency-needs issues. What is key is that this issue has to be taken up by political leadership. It has to be something that finance ministers pay attention to, as well as agricultural or social welfare ministers. The food crisis will affect economies, growth, poverty alleviation, and future generations in these countries. And we need both short-term and long-term solutions.

FP: Are you able to predict which countries are going to have severe shortages and where to concentrate aid, or is it anybodys guess?

JS: We do very extensive food and crop monitoring with the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and, in addition, we look at all the projections from the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Global food production has actually gone through a couple of years of decrease, although not by much. But even under the most optimal circumstances, it cannot increase by more than single digits in a particular year, even if harvests and weather are good. So were not expecting to see a big surge in supply. Were hoping to stay even or see some increase. The problem is, farmers in the developing world are not planting in the way that they did before because they cant afford the inputs. This could compound the crisis and requires very quick attention from the global community.

FP: Where do you see the greatest potential for massive unrest, suffering, or starvation?

JS: The key indicators we look at are import-dependent countries, because were seeing a strain on their capabilities to obtain enough food to meet their needs. Those who have an additional stress like a conflict or a severe weather situationsuch as the countries in West Africa, southern Africa, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and otherswe see as particularly vulnerable to disaster as they try to manage soaring food prices.

FP: Your organization has announced a $755 million shortfall because of these rising food prices. Wheres that money going to come from?

JS: We have a base budget of $2.9 billion. Thats all voluntarily funded, so we have to raise that money. That $2.9 billion now requires [an additional] $755 million just to meet our existing program of work, which includes Darfur, northern Uganda, Afghanistan, Iraq refugees, etc. So, we have put out an extraordinary emergency appeal. I have been on the road for four months, working with governments to try to meet that appeal. Ive testified twice before the European Parliament; Im going to testify before the British Parliament on Monday; Ive been up to the U.S. Congress numerous times; Im meeting with the Bush administration; Ill head to Japan and then the Gulf countries in mid-May. This is really a global appeal that we think requires an extraordinary allocation, a special supplemental allocation as the world would do in a tsunami or an earthquake. This is a silent tsunami, and one thats virtually hitting every developing nation on the earth.

FP: This situation seems to be about as bad as anyone could have imagined, or worse. Is there any cause for optimism?

JS: Im optimistic because the world knows how to beat the cycle of hunger and the world knows how to produce enough food for the global population. A lot of global hunger is an infrastructure and distribution problemmaybe half. We see up to half the food lost in developing countries simply because theres no way to get it from farm gates to markets. We see virtually nonexistent agricultural markets, so theres no place for buyer and seller to meet. These are things that can be solved. They dont require a new scientific breakthrough or a Nobel Prize-winning team to find out how to produce enough food for the world. So, we need to focus our attention on a green revolution in Africa that will help break this cycle. In a way, the higher food prices may inspire more people to stay in farming as they see that its a good investment. But there will be a lag between what I hope will be a pretty robust response to world demand, and what I know will be a pretty difficult three to four years.

FP: And after that, then what?

JS: [Columbia University economist] Jeffrey Sachs points out that Malawi, for instance, massively increased production in a single year, with investment. It cost many millions of dollars, but the return immediately exceeded those amounts. Investment in agriculture, as the World Bank has noted, will yield the greatest returns for economic growth of any other investment. The farmers I meet are ready to get a little help and to produce more whether its in Latin America or Africa or Asia. We have many tens of millions of farmers in the world whowith a little bit of a boost, a little more technology, and access to the kind of information that has become standard for American, European, Japanese, and other farmers around the worldcan get those yields up. Today in Africa, the average yield is one tenth of what it is elsewhere in the world. Theres a lot of room for growth there.

Josette Sheeran is executive director of the World Food Program at the United Nations.