Did toads predict the China quake?
Rumors are flying in China about why officials couldn’t predict the quake when apparent natural signs were there. Technically, seismologists the world over say they can’t accurately predict location and timing of earthquakes, but some in China see it differently. Eyewitnesses say they observed changes in water levels in the days leading up to the ...
Rumors are flying in China about why officials couldn't predict the quake when apparent natural signs were there. Technically, seismologists the world over say they can't accurately predict location and timing of earthquakes, but some in China see it differently.
Rumors are flying in China about why officials couldn’t predict the quake when apparent natural signs were there. Technically, seismologists the world over say they can’t accurately predict location and timing of earthquakes, but some in China see it differently.
Eyewitnesses say they observed changes in water levels in the days leading up to the quake, and abnormal animal behavior just prior. Media reports ten days ahead of the quake suggest "several thousand cubic meters of water disappeared within an hour in Hubei [350 miles east of the epicenter], but the [seismological] bureau there dismissed it." Quake mispredictions aren’t without precedent; in the 1970s in Tangshan, the seismologists dispatched to check out reports of mysteriously falling well water levels were killed by the very quake they wrote off, according to the AP.
A few days prior to this week’s Sichuan quake, a torrent of toads overran Mianzhu city where thousands of people were later killed in the severe tremors. The local forestry bureau did a TV interview before the disaster claiming it was normal breeding behavior which has people particularly angry after the fact. (Video above.) In Wuhan, 600 miles from the epicenter, a newspaper reported zebras banging their heads against the door, elephants swinging their tusks wildly, and peacocks screeching just before the quake hit. The idea that animals can sense certain things before humans is not new, though it relies primarily on observational evidence. It was studied some in the 1970s by the U.S. Geological Survey to no avail. Similar reports of strange animal behavior preceded the 2004 tsunami.
Some articles are now talking about the mandate of heaven, on which Chinese imperial dynasties traditionally drew their legitimacy. Natural disasters or mass disorder typically signaled the eclipse of that dynasty’s mandate and the time for a new one to step in. Obviously the modern age is a different story, but it’s been a rough year for China. As Wang Yiyan, Chinese studies professor at University of Sydney puts it, "The government knows many Chinese will see the quake as a sign that things are out of balance."
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