Nobody has a clue about Iran

FILE; WALTER ASTRADA/AFP/Getty Images

Recent statements by Iranian leaders have Tehranologists baffled. Yesterday, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki (left) pointedly refused to reaffirm his country’s right to uraniam enrichment, and one of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s top advisors criticized “provocative and illogical declarations and slogans,” a likely slap at President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his comments on the nuclear issue.

“A new trend of change is taking place,” Mottaki told reporters in New York, explaining that Iran sees points of agreement with an offer recently put forward by the so-called P5+1, i.e. the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany. Iran put its own proposal on the table in May.

So, are the Iranians reacting, despite their avid denials, to the recent drumbeat of stories — some would call it a psyops campaign — suggesting that Israel is serious about launching an attack? Does Mottaki speak for the supreme leader? Is this all a ploy to buy time and relieve some pressure? Nobody can say for sure. One piece of advice I would give: Western diplomats should act as if Iran’s new, softer line is totally sincere. It’s a basic rule of diplomacy: If you’re getting conflicting messages, pick the one you like best and run with it.