It’s not just the war that’s hurting Russia

In light of today’s news about the financial shock and awe that international investors are raining down upon Russia’s markets, Dan Drezner highlights this bit from our recent Seven Questions interview with the very smart Clifford Kupchan: As far as portfolio investors and the Russian stock market are concerned, the main tipping point was the ...

In light of today's news about the financial shock and awe that international investors are raining down upon Russia's markets, Dan Drezner highlights this bit from our recent Seven Questions interview with the very smart Clifford Kupchan:

In light of today’s news about the financial shock and awe that international investors are raining down upon Russia’s markets, Dan Drezner highlights this bit from our recent Seven Questions interview with the very smart Clifford Kupchan:

As far as portfolio investors and the Russian stock market are concerned, the main tipping point was the four days following July 24, when TNK-BP’s Robert Dudley left the country, and shortly after that, Putin went after the steel company Mechal and took about $6 billion off its capitalization. Those behaviors really rattled investors and caused a steep dip in the Russian stock market. The war’s effect has been less dramatic.

More broadly, I think Russia as an island of stability and a safe haven from the credit crunch—that perception of Russia is on life support. Essentially over. There’s been four reasons: TNK-BP, Mechal, the Russian government’s willingness to use administrative means to break up cartels and implement de facto price controls (which means there’s more strategic risk in consumer sectors as well as strategic sectors), and fourth is the war. When you add those four together, the investment climate has taken a real, real hit over the last month.

As the always-insightful Peter Baker noted yesterday, many of those hardest hit by the recent decline in Russia’s stock market index have close ties to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Call it karma.

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