Pakistan: Sharif’s out; what happens now?

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Pakistan’s former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, is making good on his threat to pull his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) from the ruling coalition that has bickered, quarelled, and basically done everything but govern the country since it took power after the February 18 parliamentary elections.

Sharif said he was withdrawing because the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the party of Benazir Bhutto widower Asif Ali Zardari, refuses to keep its word about reinstating all of the Supreme Court judges who were ousted by Pervez Musharraf last fall. (It probably didn’t help when the PPP chose Zardari as its candidate to replace the former president rather than working to find a consensus pick.)

What does Sharif’s move mean? Here’s where things get complicated. Note that there are slightly conflicting reports about the precise number of seats each party holds and where the fast-shifting alliances are lining up. With those caveats, here’s my quick whip count.

The National Assembly, a majority of which selects the prime minister, has 342 seats, and the PPP holds 125 of them. To get a majority and form a government, you need 172 votes, so Zardari needs at least 47 to put his party over the top. Musharraf’s old party, the PML-Q (54 seats), looks to be lining up with Sharif and his party’s 91 votes.

But Zardari is probably safe, both regarding his own presidential bid and control of the government. He already reportedly has the support of the Awami National Party (13 seats) and the Mutihida Majlis-e-Amal coalition (7 seats), whose bases are in the northwest, as well as the Mutihida Qaumi Movement (25 seats), giving him 45 additional votes. Sprinkle in a few independents and Baluchi nationalists (with 17 seats between them) and the PPP looks like it will squeak out ahead. Of course, Pakistan is a volatile place and these coalitions could easily change. Stay tuned.