Pakistan’s long and dreary outlook

Barack Obama and John McCain like to disagree about Pakistan, as they did in the debate last night. Obama says yay to cross-border raids if key terrorists can be picked up or killed. McCain says nay, arguing that the soft talk/big stick approach will work better in a country where public opinion is already dangerously ...

By , International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Colombia.

Barack Obama and John McCain like to disagree about Pakistan, as they did in the debate last night. Obama says yay to cross-border raids if key terrorists can be picked up or killed. McCain says nay, arguing that the soft talk/big stick approach will work better in a country where public opinion is already dangerously set against U.S. efforts.

Barack Obama and John McCain like to disagree about Pakistan, as they did in the debate last night. Obama says yay to cross-border raids if key terrorists can be picked up or killed. McCain says nay, arguing that the soft talk/big stick approach will work better in a country where public opinion is already dangerously set against U.S. efforts.

But no matter how much both candidates mumble about fundamental differences with their opponent’s approaches, each seems to agree on one thing: They expect that results in the war on terror can come sooner rather than later.

I’m about to ruin the party.

In Pakistan, not only are results are not only a long way off, but they are looking more and more elusive. Carnegie Endowment scholar Ashley J. Tellis offered this timeline in a policy brief earlier this fall:

Even if Islamabad were to overcome the immediate problems related to terrorism, the permanent transformation of Pakistan would be decades away."

Why so long? FP wanted to get a bit more nitty-gritty. So this morning, I chatted with Dexter Filkins of the New York Times, who has done sharp reporting for his book, The Forever War, in Iraq and subsequently in Pakistan.

The good news is, Pakistan is no Iraq. The bad news is, the timeline might be even longer. Sorry senators, but that might mean the victory fireworks will come long after the first term, if indeed they come at all.

Check it out.

Elizabeth Dickinson is International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Colombia.

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