Morning Brief: A tightening race?

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With just days left in the U.S. presidential campaign, a few national polls suggest a tightening race.

Gallup’s daily tracking poll gives Barack Obama a two-point edge over John McCain, using its traditional estimate of likely voters. Rasmussen Reports’ daily tracking poll gives the Illinois senator a five-point lead nationwide. The McCain camp insists the polls in general overestimate Obama’s chances, and says its internal polling shows a much tighter race.

It’s in the states, however, that the election will be decided, and here the picture looks decidedly grim for Republicans. RealClearPolitics counts 311 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee versus an estimated 157 for McCain. Nevada and New Hampshire are now trending Obama’s way. Also worth noting: Early voters appear to be breaking heavily for Democrats.

Marc Ambinder comments, “In the battlegrounds, except for in McCain’s internal polling, there has been NO appreciable tightening.” 

Economy

Wall Street rallied again Tuesday, and Asian and European markets made moderate gains Wednesday.

The world’s oilfields are declining faster than expected, according to a landmark IEA study leaked to the Financial Times.

Some luxury goods are becoming unfashionable.

Americas

A major drug cartel may have had a spy inside the U.S. Embassy in Mexico.

In an annual ritual, Cuba plans to formally protest the U.S. embargo at the United Nations.

Asia

Pakistan has just a few days before its foreign-exchange reserves run out. To make matters worse, a deadly earthquake just hit Baluchistan province.

China signed an oil-pipeline deal with Russia.

Voters in the Maldives decided not to reelect Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, Asia’s longest-serving leader.

Middle East and Africa

Rebels in eastern Congo seized the border town of Rutshuru, sending U.N. aid workers scrambling for safety. Time‘s Alex Perry comments.

A flurry of suicide bombs struck northern Somalia.

Iran is opening a new naval base near the Strait of Hormuz.

Europe

Hungary is getting a $25.1 billion rescue package from the IMF.

Belarus, also hoping for a bailout, says it is ready to liberalize its economy.

British PM Gordon Brown is calling for a global bailout fund.

Today’s Agenda

The markets expect a 2:15 p.m. interest-rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. China cut its key rate earlier today.

The Czech Republic’s prime minister is visiting the White House.

Obama airs his campaign infomercial.

Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images