So you think you’re smarter than a political scientist?
Readers are encouraged to post their electoral predictions for tomorrow night in the comments. Here are mine: Electoral College: 368-170 for Obama Popular Vote: 53-45 for Obama Senate: +8 for Democrats Post your predicions in the comments. The commenter who comes closest to the actual results wins the ultimate prize — s/he can select the ...
Readers are encouraged to post their electoral predictions for tomorrow night in the comments. Here are mine: Electoral College: 368-170 for Obama Popular Vote: 53-45 for Obama Senate: +8 for Democrats Post your predicions in the comments. The commenter who comes closest to the actual results wins the ultimate prize -- s/he can select the topic of a post for your humble blogger. UPDATE: Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com posts his prediction based on the final poll numbers: Obama 349, McCain 189 in the Electoral College, with a popular vote margin of 6.1%. For what it's worth, I have the Electoral College breaking exactly the way Silver does -- except that I have Obama pulling off an upset in Georgia (essentially, I think Obama overperforms his poll numbers in the South but not in the rest of the country). Here's my map:
Readers are encouraged to post their electoral predictions for tomorrow night in the comments. Here are mine:
- Electoral College: 368-170 for Obama
- Popular Vote: 53-45 for Obama
- Senate: +8 for Democrats
Post your predicions in the comments. The commenter who comes closest to the actual results wins the ultimate prize — s/he can select the topic of a post for your humble blogger. UPDATE: Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com posts his prediction based on the final poll numbers: Obama 349, McCain 189 in the Electoral College, with a popular vote margin of 6.1%. For what it’s worth, I have the Electoral College breaking exactly the way Silver does — except that I have Obama pulling off an upset in Georgia (essentially, I think Obama overperforms his poll numbers in the South but not in the rest of the country). Here’s my map:
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at Tufts University’s Fletcher School. He blogged regularly for Foreign Policy from 2009 to 2014. Twitter: @dandrezner
More from Foreign Policy

What Are Sweden and Finland Thinking?
European leaders have reassessed Russia’s intentions and are balancing against the threat that Putin poses to the territorial status quo.

The Window To Expel Russia From Ukraine Is Now
Russia is digging in across the southeast.

Why China Is Paranoid About the Quad
Beijing has long lived with U.S. alliances in Asia, but a realigned India would change the game.

Finns Show Up for Conscription. Russians Dodge It.
Two seemingly similar systems produce very different militaries.