So you think you’re smarter than a political scientist?

Readers are encouraged to post their electoral predictions for tomorrow night in the comments.  Here are mine:  Electoral College:  368-170 for Obama Popular Vote:  53-45 for Obama Senate:  +8 for Democrats Post your predicions in the comments.  The commenter who comes closest to the actual results wins the ultimate prize — s/he can select the ...

Readers are encouraged to post their electoral predictions for tomorrow night in the comments.  Here are mine:  Electoral College:  368-170 for Obama Popular Vote:  53-45 for Obama Senate:  +8 for Democrats Post your predicions in the comments.  The commenter who comes closest to the actual results wins the ultimate prize -- s/he can select the topic of a post for your humble blogger.  UPDATE:  Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com posts his prediction based on the final poll numbers:  Obama 349, McCain 189 in the Electoral College, with a popular vote margin of 6.1%.  For what it's worth, I have the Electoral College breaking exactly the way Silver does -- except that I have Obama pulling off an upset in Georgia (essentially, I think Obama overperforms his poll numbers in the South but not in the rest of the country).  Here's my map:   

Readers are encouraged to post their electoral predictions for tomorrow night in the comments.  Here are mine: 

  • Electoral College:  368-170 for Obama
  • Popular Vote:  53-45 for Obama
  • Senate:  +8 for Democrats

Post your predicions in the comments.  The commenter who comes closest to the actual results wins the ultimate prize — s/he can select the topic of a post for your humble blogger.  UPDATE:  Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com posts his prediction based on the final poll numbers:  Obama 349, McCain 189 in the Electoral College, with a popular vote margin of 6.1%.  For what it’s worth, I have the Electoral College breaking exactly the way Silver does — except that I have Obama pulling off an upset in Georgia (essentially, I think Obama overperforms his poll numbers in the South but not in the rest of the country).  Here’s my map:   

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at Tufts University’s Fletcher School. He blogged regularly for Foreign Policy from 2009 to 2014. Twitter: @dandrezner

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