So you think you’re smarter than a political scientist?
Readers are encouraged to post their electoral predictions for tomorrow night in the comments. Here are mine: Electoral College: 368-170 for Obama Popular Vote: 53-45 for Obama Senate: +8 for Democrats Post your predicions in the comments. The commenter who comes closest to the actual results wins the ultimate prize — s/he can select the ...
Readers are encouraged to post their electoral predictions for tomorrow night in the comments. Here are mine: Electoral College: 368-170 for Obama Popular Vote: 53-45 for Obama Senate: +8 for Democrats Post your predicions in the comments. The commenter who comes closest to the actual results wins the ultimate prize -- s/he can select the topic of a post for your humble blogger. UPDATE: Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com posts his prediction based on the final poll numbers: Obama 349, McCain 189 in the Electoral College, with a popular vote margin of 6.1%. For what it's worth, I have the Electoral College breaking exactly the way Silver does -- except that I have Obama pulling off an upset in Georgia (essentially, I think Obama overperforms his poll numbers in the South but not in the rest of the country). Here's my map:
Readers are encouraged to post their electoral predictions for tomorrow night in the comments. Here are mine:
- Electoral College: 368-170 for Obama
- Popular Vote: 53-45 for Obama
- Senate: +8 for Democrats
Post your predicions in the comments. The commenter who comes closest to the actual results wins the ultimate prize — s/he can select the topic of a post for your humble blogger. UPDATE: Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com posts his prediction based on the final poll numbers: Obama 349, McCain 189 in the Electoral College, with a popular vote margin of 6.1%. For what it’s worth, I have the Electoral College breaking exactly the way Silver does — except that I have Obama pulling off an upset in Georgia (essentially, I think Obama overperforms his poll numbers in the South but not in the rest of the country). Here’s my map:
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at Tufts University’s Fletcher School. He blogged regularly for Foreign Policy from 2009 to 2014. Twitter: @dandrezner
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