Things I do not want to talk about until 2010
James Pethokoukis has a long post arguing that the economy is in such bad shape it will still be bad by 2012, making Barack Obama a one-term president. I have three thoughts about this: James Pethokoukis really needs a vacation. Seriously. A couple days away from the computer and I bet Pethokoukis’ perspective will return ...
James Pethokoukis has a long post arguing that the economy is in such bad shape it will still be bad by 2012, making Barack Obama a one-term president. I have three thoughts about this: James Pethokoukis really needs a vacation. Seriously. A couple days away from the computer and I bet Pethokoukis' perspective will return in no time, and we'll stop having to read cocoon-like posts. For me, this kind of speculation falls into the same category as all the bloviating about Sarah Palin's political fortunes in 2012. Which is to say, it's too f$%^ing early to speculate. Pethokoukis tries to sketch out how the recession will play out, but he doesn't really know. No one knows. Sometimes it's better to just admit that. I could look at the current situation and start musing about the political business cycle -- but that would be foolhardy. In his analysis, Pethokoukis (and others) are omitting an important political fact. From January 2009 onwards the Obama administration will a great political excuse -- they'll simply repeat the mantra, "it's going to take a long time to clean up the economic mess left by the Bush administration." Whether is is an accurate statement or not is irrelevant -- this is exactly what the Reagan administration said during the recession of the early eighties. Now, I don't want to have to talk about this for another two years, so nobody mess with me. UPDATE: Marc Ambinder explains why 2010 won't be like 1994.
James Pethokoukis has a long post arguing that the economy is in such bad shape it will still be bad by 2012, making Barack Obama a one-term president. I have three thoughts about this:
- James Pethokoukis really needs a vacation. Seriously. A couple days away from the computer and I bet Pethokoukis’ perspective will return in no time, and we’ll stop having to read cocoon-like posts.
- For me, this kind of speculation falls into the same category as all the bloviating about Sarah Palin’s political fortunes in 2012. Which is to say, it’s too f$%^ing early to speculate. Pethokoukis tries to sketch out how the recession will play out, but he doesn’t really know. No one knows. Sometimes it’s better to just admit that. I could look at the current situation and start musing about the political business cycle — but that would be foolhardy.
- In his analysis, Pethokoukis (and others) are omitting an important political fact. From January 2009 onwards the Obama administration will a great political excuse — they’ll simply repeat the mantra, “it’s going to take a long time to clean up the economic mess left by the Bush administration.” Whether is is an accurate statement or not is irrelevant — this is exactly what the Reagan administration said during the recession of the early eighties.
Now, I don’t want to have to talk about this for another two years, so nobody mess with me. UPDATE: Marc Ambinder explains why 2010 won’t be like 1994.
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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