Things I do not want to talk about until 2010

James Pethokoukis has a long post arguing that the economy is in such bad shape it will still be bad by 2012, making Barack Obama a one-term president.  I have three thoughts about this:  James Pethokoukis really needs a vacation.  Seriously.  A couple days away from the computer and I bet Pethokoukis’ perspective will return ...

By , a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast.

James Pethokoukis has a long post arguing that the economy is in such bad shape it will still be bad by 2012, making Barack Obama a one-term president.  I have three thoughts about this:  James Pethokoukis really needs a vacation.  Seriously.  A couple days away from the computer and I bet Pethokoukis' perspective will return in no time, and we'll stop having to read cocoon-like posts.  For me, this kind of speculation falls into the same category as all the bloviating about Sarah Palin's political fortunes in 2012.  Which is to say, it's too f$%^ing early to speculate.  Pethokoukis tries to sketch out how the recession will play out, but he doesn't really know.  No one knows.  Sometimes it's better to just admit that.  I could look at the current situation and start musing about the political business cycle -- but that would be foolhardy.    In his analysis, Pethokoukis (and others) are omitting an important political fact.  From January 2009 onwards the Obama administration will a great political excuse -- they'll simply repeat the mantra, "it's going to take a long time to clean up the economic mess left by the Bush administration."  Whether is is an accurate statement or not is irrelevant -- this is exactly what the Reagan administration said during the recession of the early eighties.  Now, I don't want to have to talk about this for another two years, so nobody mess with me.  UPDATE:  Marc Ambinder explains why 2010 won't be like 1994

James Pethokoukis has a long post arguing that the economy is in such bad shape it will still be bad by 2012, making Barack Obama a one-term president.  I have three thoughts about this: 

  1. James Pethokoukis really needs a vacation.  Seriously.  A couple days away from the computer and I bet Pethokoukis’ perspective will return in no time, and we’ll stop having to read cocoon-like posts
  2. For me, this kind of speculation falls into the same category as all the bloviating about Sarah Palin’s political fortunes in 2012.  Which is to say, it’s too f$%^ing early to speculate.  Pethokoukis tries to sketch out how the recession will play out, but he doesn’t really know.  No one knows.  Sometimes it’s better to just admit that.  I could look at the current situation and start musing about the political business cycle — but that would be foolhardy.   
  3. In his analysis, Pethokoukis (and others) are omitting an important political fact.  From January 2009 onwards the Obama administration will a great political excuse — they’ll simply repeat the mantra, “it’s going to take a long time to clean up the economic mess left by the Bush administration.”  Whether is is an accurate statement or not is irrelevant — this is exactly what the Reagan administration said during the recession of the early eighties. 

Now, I don’t want to have to talk about this for another two years, so nobody mess with me.  UPDATE:  Marc Ambinder explains why 2010 won’t be like 1994

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner

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