Who’s winning in Lebanon?

The explosive events that regularly occur in Lebanon tend to obscure, rather than reveal, the balance of power in the country. Analysts have a habit of taking the latest news as proof that the country is completely dominated by America and its allies, or by Syria‘s proxies in Lebanon. By far the worst example of ...

The explosive events that regularly occur in Lebanon tend to obscure, rather than reveal, the balance of power in the country. Analysts have a habit of taking the latest news as proof that the country is completely dominated by America and its allies, or by Syria's proxies in Lebanon.

The explosive events that regularly occur in Lebanon tend to obscure, rather than reveal, the balance of power in the country. Analysts have a habit of taking the latest news as proof that the country is completely dominated by America and its allies, or by Syria‘s proxies in Lebanon.

By far the worst example of this is former Middle East correspondent Thanassis Cambanis, who pontificated recently in the Middle East Bulletin that, "Hezbollah, Syria and Iran are stronger in Lebanon that any point in the last decade." Cambanis went on to argue that this new balance of power required the United States to reconcile itself to negotiations with those sympathetic to Hezbollah.

Are Hezbollah and Syria really stronger than at any point in the last 10 years? Syrian troops occupied Lebanon until 2005. Until that time, all of the country’s major Christian leaders were either in exile for their anti-Syrian views, or imprisoned. The Sunni and Druze political leaders were uniformly loyal to Syria, an alliance these Lebanese politicians broke in 2005 and one that has never been revived. The Syrians strong-armed Lebanese parliamentarians into accepting their hand-picked choice for president in 1998, and then into unconstitutionally extending his term in 2004. The main thing we learn from Cambanis’s analysis is that he doesn’t have the first clue about recent Lebanese history.

Hezbollah recently won an important victory against the government through an armed invasion of Sunni areas of Beirut. But they were fighting against attempts by the Lebanese government to rein in their autonomy — a fact that Lebanese parties had assented to quietly until just a few years ago, out of fear of the power of Syria and its allies. Syria occupied Lebanon for 25 years, and it was never reasonable to assume that all Syrian influence would be eradicated immediately. A little perspective shows that, rather than being in ascendance, Syria and Hezbollah’s clout in Lebanon is close to its historical low, and the balance of power is not nearly as grim as some would have us believe.

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