India’s other dangerous neighbor

Much has been said in recent days of Pakistan’s involvement in the Mumbai bombings. But it’s not the only neighbor to the north the India might need to worry about. Several reports yesterday indicated the Mumbai militants entered not just from Kashmir, but Nepal and Bangladesh, as well.

As in Pakistan, the Nepalese government struggles to control wide swathes of territory. The Tarai border region with India — from which the attackers would have entered — is of particular concern. The 1800 km of forested land is simply “not a controllable border,” says Chalmers.

The problem runs deeper than geography. Nepal is still on unstable ground after a 2006 peace agreement brought an end to a long-time monarchy and a violent Maoist rebellion. Elections were held this summer, and to everyone’s great surprise, the Maoists won the day. Now, the same army that once fought those Maoists is expected to be loyal to their civilian government. So far the 95,000-strong force has looked reluctant to shed its elite ties. And Maoist rebels have yet to be demobilized.

All this means that fragile Nepal is “as militarized as Pakistan,” analyst Rhoddy Chalmers of the International Crisis Group told me. For now, the peace is holding, but as the Mumbai attacks make clear, the country is vulnerable to a host of groups looking to take advantage of chaos.

India, long a supporter of the peace process, might change its tone after the Mumbai attacks, particularly if 2009 elections bring to power a “securicrat” interested in closing the borders. For now, people and goods cross freely through check points, easily avoidable if one is willing to duck through a bit of forest.

Until now, “India doesn’t tend to have policy towards Nepal–it has interests, pursued haphazardly,” says Chalmers.

Maybe a grand strategy is needed.

Photo: PRADEEP SHRESTHA/AFP/Getty Images