How bad can South Asia get?
South Asia is one of those places where, the closer you look, the more the region looks like a tinderbox waiting to explode. The odd thing is that it actual explosions of conflict are pretty rare. For one possible explanation for why things will not explode this time, check out the Christian Science Monitor‘s Mark ...
South Asia is one of those places where, the closer you look, the more the region looks like a tinderbox waiting to explode. The odd thing is that it actual explosions of conflict are pretty rare. For one possible explanation for why things will not explode this time, check out the Christian Science Monitor's Mark Sappenfield, who profiles Pakistan's Army chief, Ashfaq Kayani: As Army Chief, General Kayani is the man behind the curtain of Pakistani power, controlling an Army that has ruled for much of Pakistan's 61 years. Without Kayani's support, Mr. Zardari can do little against Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group tied to the Mumbai (formerly Bombay) attacks. One year into the job, Kayani has been a reformer – clipping the Army's interference in politics and mounting offensives against militants in Pakistan's tribal areas. But today's crisis poses unique challenges: His Army is stretched and in no mood to do its archrival's bidding.... Kayani has removed some 3,000 active and retired military personnel from civilian government posts, and he deactivated the political wing of the ISI, which had long been accused of intimidating or blackmailing politicians opposed to the Army. He continued to subordinate the military to civilian control last week by allowing the disbanding of the National Security Council, an influential panel dominated by the president and military. Its functions will now be fulfilled by the parliamentary Defense Committee, which made the decision to arrest the Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders earlier this week, Rashid says. Kayani's purpose is to move the Army back toward its core functions, such as war fighting, and away from political intrigue, says Shuja Nawaz, author of "Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within." "It appears that the Army is trying to retool itself and is quite happy for the civilians to make the decisions," he says. After the Musharraf years, in which Army generals got rich off real estate and construction deals, Kayani "is convinced that the military needs to return to its professional roots." So that's promising. There is also this VOA report: Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh says he wants what he calls "normalized" relations with Pakistan, if Pakistan will stop allowing its territory to be used for terrorist activities against India. Mr. Singh made the statement Sunday during an election rally in Indian Kashmir. Tensions between the two countries have risen since the Mumbai terror attacks. Progress in the region is never going to be seamless -- but one wonders whether, beneath the bluster, both sides can reach some rapprochement before India's elections next year.
South Asia is one of those places where, the closer you look, the more the region looks like a tinderbox waiting to explode. The odd thing is that it actual explosions of conflict are pretty rare. For one possible explanation for why things will not explode this time, check out the Christian Science Monitor‘s Mark Sappenfield, who profiles Pakistan’s Army chief, Ashfaq Kayani:
As Army Chief, General Kayani is the man behind the curtain of Pakistani power, controlling an Army that has ruled for much of Pakistan’s 61 years. Without Kayani’s support, Mr. Zardari can do little against Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group tied to the Mumbai (formerly Bombay) attacks. One year into the job, Kayani has been a reformer – clipping the Army’s interference in politics and mounting offensives against militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas. But today’s crisis poses unique challenges: His Army is stretched and in no mood to do its archrival’s bidding…. Kayani has removed some 3,000 active and retired military personnel from civilian government posts, and he deactivated the political wing of the ISI, which had long been accused of intimidating or blackmailing politicians opposed to the Army. He continued to subordinate the military to civilian control last week by allowing the disbanding of the National Security Council, an influential panel dominated by the president and military. Its functions will now be fulfilled by the parliamentary Defense Committee, which made the decision to arrest the Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders earlier this week, Rashid says. Kayani’s purpose is to move the Army back toward its core functions, such as war fighting, and away from political intrigue, says Shuja Nawaz, author of “Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within.” “It appears that the Army is trying to retool itself and is quite happy for the civilians to make the decisions,” he says. After the Musharraf years, in which Army generals got rich off real estate and construction deals, Kayani “is convinced that the military needs to return to its professional roots.”
So that’s promising. There is also this VOA report:
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh says he wants what he calls “normalized” relations with Pakistan, if Pakistan will stop allowing its territory to be used for terrorist activities against India. Mr. Singh made the statement Sunday during an election rally in Indian Kashmir. Tensions between the two countries have risen since the Mumbai terror attacks.
Progress in the region is never going to be seamless — but one wonders whether, beneath the bluster, both sides can reach some rapprochement before India’s elections next year.
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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