My biggest mistake

As the presidency of George W. Bush staggers to a long-awaited and much-needed end, it is high time for me to ‘fess up about the worst forecast of my scholarly career. Head bowed, I quote from the March/April 2000 issue of Foreign Affairs ("Two Cheers for Clinton’s Foreign Policy"). My closing lines: Pundits may carp ...

Walt-Steve-foreign-policy-columnist20
Walt-Steve-foreign-policy-columnist20
Stephen M. Walt
By , a columnist at Foreign Policy and the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

As the presidency of George W. Bush staggers to a long-awaited and much-needed end, it is high time for me to 'fess up about the worst forecast of my scholarly career. Head bowed, I quote from the March/April 2000 issue of Foreign Affairs ("Two Cheers for Clinton’s Foreign Policy"). My closing lines:

As the presidency of George W. Bush staggers to a long-awaited and much-needed end, it is high time for me to ‘fess up about the worst forecast of my scholarly career. Head bowed, I quote from the March/April 2000 issue of Foreign Affairs ("Two Cheers for Clinton’s Foreign Policy"). My closing lines:

Pundits may carp and Republicans may complain, but the American people judge [Bill Clinton’s] stewardship of foreign policy to be ‘outstanding,’ according to polls conducted by the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. That is why his successor is likely to follow in his footsteps, no matter what is promised between now and January 2001, and no matter which party wins" (emphasis added).

To say I was wrong is something of an understatement. I could offer excuses — "Uh, 9/11 changed everything! "Er, Bush pretended to be a realist!" "But he told us his foreign policy would be ‘humble!’" — but the cold fact remains that I just plain blew it. I knew it wasn’t going to be good, but I didn’t realize just how bad it could get. How bad was it? See here.

Readers who wish to confess their own failed forecasts are welcome to do so. Bonus points for anyone who uses their real name.

Stephen M. Walt is a columnist at Foreign Policy and the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University. Twitter: @stephenwalt

More from Foreign Policy

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping give a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping give a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21.

Can Russia Get Used to Being China’s Little Brother?

The power dynamic between Beijing and Moscow has switched dramatically.

Xi and Putin shake hands while carrying red folders.
Xi and Putin shake hands while carrying red folders.

Xi and Putin Have the Most Consequential Undeclared Alliance in the World

It’s become more important than Washington’s official alliances today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

It’s a New Great Game. Again.

Across Central Asia, Russia’s brand is tainted by Ukraine, China’s got challenges, and Washington senses another opening.

Kurdish military officers take part in a graduation ceremony in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, on Jan. 15.
Kurdish military officers take part in a graduation ceremony in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, on Jan. 15.

Iraqi Kurdistan’s House of Cards Is Collapsing

The region once seemed a bright spot in the disorder unleashed by U.S. regime change. Today, things look bleak.