The Saudi king, liberator of women and guardian of reform?

Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, king of Saudi Arabia, generated headlines a few days ago by naming a woman to fill a cabinet position. Given the kingdom’s political culture, that’s a remarkable development. But it hints at the much more complicated battle for the kingdom’s future now unfolding behind the scenes.

The appointment of Noura al Fayez as deputy minister in charge of women’s education made news in the West, but it was just one part of a broader cabinet reshuffle that included the addition of moderates at several state institutions. The underlying message here is that King Abdullah has reasserted his intention to push forward with reform after an extended period of hesitation, one in which conservative Wahhabi forces effectively stalled the reform process.

The reshuffle did not involve strategically vital institutions, like the ministries of oil, the interior or foreign affairs. But the king did make important changes in the Majlis al Shura (consultative council), the military, the judiciary, and the religious police — an institution that has provoked heated public criticism amid allegations of abuse. The Justice Ministry has been considered a powerful tool in the hands of the conservative Wahhabi establishment, and the king’s decision to demote Justice Minister Abdullah al Sheikh to head the less influential Majlis al Shura is consistent with other elements of his reform agenda.

Despite these changes, the road toward substantive and lasting political and social change in Saudi Arabia remains a long one, and the struggle between reformers and conservatives at several levels of Saudi society will continue. The unprecedented appointment of a woman to the cabinet won’t trigger an immediate backlash, but there’s little question that Wahhabi leaders will see the move as a threat to their influence within government.

This brings us to the declining health of Crown Prince Sultan, heir to the throne.

The Saudi royal family relies for support on the ties that bind senior royals to religious scholars and tribal leaders. Both groups’ political weight is vital in times of crisis and confusion, and any candidate to the throne must have the support of Wahhabi scholars. Though Saudi Arabia faces no immediate risk of political instability, Crown Prince Sultan’s illness will push the main branches of the royal family to compete for influence in the choice of a replacement.

Two years ago, aware that succession politics might generate conflict and turmoil within the family, King Abdullah created the so-called Allegiance Commission, a body made up of 35 royals responsible for choosing a successor to the current heir apparent. Institutionalizing the process will not head off intense competition among the family’s most powerful branches, but in the interest of the kingdom’s stability, senior royals will do their best to ensure that conflicts remain behind closed doors.

If the crown prince’s health forces him to step aside, his likeliest replacement is Prince Salman, governor of Riyadh and a member of the powerful Sudeyri branch of the monarchy. Most consider Prince Salman a moderate, and he enjoys support from both conservatives and reformers. Yet, King Abdullah may be pushing for the candidacy of Prince Muqrin, the head of the intelligence services, or Prince Mishaal, who heads the Allegiance Commission.

There is little risk that this internal competition (or its outcome) will badly damage the stability of the al Saud dynasty, and the Wahhabi establishment and various tribes will remain at the heart of the kingdom’s power structure for years to come. But the succession struggle will make an important difference in the pace of reform in the kingdom. That’s why the crown prince’s health will remain a subject of intense speculation.

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