China — peaceful rise or crash and burn?

Political scientist Minxin Pei and economist Jonathan Anderson have a debate in the latest issue of The National Interest over China’s future.  Anderson is bullish; Pei thinks that all of China’s problems — environmental degradation, flawed economic and political institutions — will lead to stagnation.  My take on this has always been that these two ...

By , a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast.

Political scientist Minxin Pei and economist Jonathan Anderson have a debate in the latest issue of The National Interest over China's future.  Anderson is bullish; Pei thinks that all of China's problems -- environmental degradation, flawed economic and political institutions -- will lead to stagnation. 

Political scientist Minxin Pei and economist Jonathan Anderson have a debate in the latest issue of The National Interest over China’s future.  Anderson is bullish; Pei thinks that all of China’s problems — environmental degradation, flawed economic and political institutions — will lead to stagnation. 

My take on this has always been that these two outcomes are not mutually inconsistent.  China can go through vicious downturns even as its relative rise continues. 

Think of the United States 120 years ago.  America was a country that was unquestionably on the rise, but it was also coping with the vicissitudes of the recession/depression that lasted between the start of the Panic of 1873 and the end of the Panic of 1893.  The latter did not stop the former. 

Short of breaking apart, it seems hard to imagine China not augmenting its great power status.  Of course, I’m not George Friedman….

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner

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