Madagascar: Is a coup underway?
After several months of opposition protests, now, Madagascar president Marc Ravalomanana has been forced to camp outside of the capital while tanks and gunmen break into his presidential compound. Opposition leader Andry Rajoelina has proclaimed himself leader, having appointed prime ministers and a cabinet. And he has called for the current president’s arrest with the ...
After several months of opposition protests, now, Madagascar president Marc Ravalomanana has been forced to camp outside of the capital while tanks and gunmen break into his presidential compound. Opposition leader Andry Rajoelina has proclaimed himself leader, having appointed prime ministers and a cabinet. And he has called for the current president’s arrest with the apparent support of at least part of the army.
Rajoelina claims all this is not a coup d’etat, but… can he suggest a better name?
Desperate to improve things, President Ravalomana offered to call an election over the weekend — letting the voters decide who is really in change. Rajoelina, however, looks in no mood to negotiate. This wave of popular support is probably the best shot he has at power, and the opposition is keen to ride it to its fullest. African Union and United Nations calls for calm are falling on deaf ears.
What next? A worst case scenario will see a coup — and one that promises to be bloody. On top of the 100 already killed in protests, more would certainly fall victim to the president’s toppling. Ravalomanana supporters are gathering sticks and makeship weapons to defend his final stand outside the city.
The worse case could also see the exit of some of Madagascar’s recent international investors — mining companies and Korean giant Daewoo. Now is not the best time to be losing foreign cash, as developing countries are expected to see a $700 billion shortfall in the financial crisis. But somehow, I doubt all that is on Rajoelina’s mind. He has a different kind of capital control to worry about.
Elizabeth Dickinson is International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Colombia.
More from Foreign Policy


The Scrambled Spectrum of U.S. Foreign-Policy Thinking
Presidents, officials, and candidates tend to fall into six camps that don’t follow party lines.


What Does Victory Look Like in Ukraine?
Ukrainians differ on what would keep their nation safe from Russia.


The Biden Administration Is Dangerously Downplaying the Global Terrorism Threat
Today, there are more terror groups in existence, in more countries around the world, and with more territory under their control than ever before.


Blue Hawk Down
Sen. Bob Menendez’s indictment will shape the future of Congress’s foreign policy.