Kilcullen speaks

Yesterday’s Washington Post has a terrific interview by Carlos Lozada, the Mario Vargas Lllosa of newspaper editors, with David Kilcullen, the Crocodile Dundee of counterinsurgency.

Most importantly, Kilcullen thinks Pakistan is near collapse:

Pakistan is 173 million people, 100 nuclear weapons, an army bigger than the U.S. Army, and al-Qaeda headquarters sitting right there in the two-thirds of the country that the government doesn’t control. The Pakistani military and police and intelligence service don’t follow the civilian government; they are essentially a rogue state within a state. We’re now reaching the point where within one to six months we could see the collapse of the Pakistani state…”

(In a related story, over the weekend, Pakistani and Indian forces in Kashmir shot at each other — I think the phrase “exchanged fire” sounds too polite.)

Kilcullen also warns that the Iraq war is far from concluded:

I’d say we have another three to five years of substantial engagement in Iraq.”

Kilcullen, a colleague of mine at CNAS, the hottest little think tank in town,  has a new book out that should be in the rucksack of everyone heading to Afghanistan. He will be speaking at a CNAS event on April 1st, but please note that registration is required. 

Thai Jasmine/Flickr