Postcard from Singapore

Safely here in Singapore, reconnecting with friends and associates at the S Rajaratnam School, as well as several international visitors. A few quick, if slightly jet-lagged impressions:

1. The economic meltdown is The Big Story here, for obvious reasons. Singapore has the highest trade/GNP ratio in the world, and has been very hard hit by the overall decline in world trade. According to the Straits Times former Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew has warned that Singapore’s economy could shrink by as much as 10 percent this year (though other estimates are not quite as gloomy) which would be unprecedented. The political ramifications have been limited by the fact that job losses have been concentrated on the sizeable expatriate community (life’s no better for former financial wizards here than on Wall Street), but the effects of a prolonged recession could be more worrisome.

2. Like everyone else, Singaporeans with whom I’ve spoke are fascinated by Obama’s ascendancy and intensely curious about what it will mean. So far, most think he’s been terrific in changing the tone of America’s engagement with other states, but whether he can deliver on substance remains to be seen. One call this is a friendlier version of Ayatollah Khameini’s message to Obama: they’ll judge him by his acts, not just by his words. But they like the words. And nobody seems to miss George W. Bush very much, if at all.

3. As one would expect, Singapore’s security concerns are primarily focused on the local neighborhood (Indonesia, China’s growing role, maritime security, etc.) They chide us Americans for neglecting Asia over the past eight years, and think it will take some time and effort to do the deferred diplomatic maintenance. I agree, and cannot help thinking about how different our situation would be had we not squandered all that time, money, attention, and manpower and all those lives in the sands of Iraq. 

4. Final thought: I found myself wondering today whether Singapore might be something of a canary in the coal mine on the issues of energy security and adaptation to climate change. The city-state achieved its phenomenal growth by taking a very far-sighted and disciplined approach to economic development, and its leaders continue to venerate those qualities. Singapore ranks very high in per capita CO2 emissions and per capita energy consumption (it takes a lot of energy to run a modern economy in the tropics), and a rise in global sea levels would be a BIG problem for them. So I’d expect Singapore to be among the leaders in going green (both to reduce energy costs and to encourage get bigger countries to reduce emissions) and to be on the cutting edge in preparing for the environmental consequences that it may be too late to avoid. Worth watching…

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