Will Iraq become a super-charged Qatar?
I was talking with a friend after the CFR event this afternoon and two interesting questions came up which I thought I would throw out to the assembled readership. 1. What kind of role Iraq might eventually play in Arab politics if its domestic politics continue along its current path (i.e. Shia-dominated, sort of ...
I was talking with a friend after the CFR event this afternoon and two interesting questions came up which I thought I would throw out to the assembled readership.
I was talking with a friend after the CFR event this afternoon and two interesting questions came up which I thought I would throw out to the assembled readership.
1. What kind of role Iraq might eventually play in Arab politics if its domestic politics continue along its current path (i.e. Shia-dominated, sort of democratic, no collapse into major violence) and if efforts such as Amr Moussa’s push to integrate Iraq into the Arab order succeed? I suggested that one plausible scenario is that it might become a kind of super-charged Qatar: an American ally which has good relations with Iran, a lot of oil money, some endemic problems with Saudi Arabia, and acts as a kind of swing vote in inter-Arab politics. Is that plausible? Would it be in America’s strategic interests? And how would the original Qatar feel about it? Discuss.
2. Another dimension has to do with regional institutions. One possibility that I’ve broached before is the creation of some sort of 6+2 formula for the Gulf: the GCC plus Iran and Iraq, with a (probably informal but positive) relationship with the U.S. That may seem wildly unrealistic, but is it impossible as an endpoint for a serious engagement with Iran and attempt to integrate Iraq back into the Arab world? Discuss.
Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, where he is the director of the Institute for Middle East Studies and of the Project on Middle East Political Science. He is also a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. He is the author of The Arab Uprising (March 2012, PublicAffairs).
He publishes frequently on the politics of the Middle East, with a particular focus on the Arab media and information technology, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, and Islamist movements. Twitter: @abuaardvark
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