Netanyahu and Lieberman up the ante

By Eurasia Group analysts Geoff Porter and Willis Sparks

The new Israeli government has wasted no time in confirming its hawkish reputation on both Iran’s nuclear program and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Blunt comments from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman signal a risky road ahead — and an increasingly uneasy relationship between the U.S. and Israeli governments.

Netanyahu entered office with a warning: If the U.S. administration does not lead the charge in halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israel may decide that it has no choice but to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. And his new foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the hard-line Yisrael Beiteinu party, has argued that Israel is not bound to abide by understandings reached between the previous Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority. He added that Israelis should perhaps prepare for war rather than peace.

Whether he is truly prepared to give the order to target Iran’s nuclear facilities any time soon, Netanyahu’s comments on Iran represent an effort to influence the Obama administration’s approach to Iran, one that has begun with a call from Washington for a more constructive relationship with Tehran. The new Israeli prime minister wants to ensure that the Obama administration keeps its pledges to block Iran’s nuclear program at the top of its agenda — that it understands Israel can’t afford to allow negotiations with Iran to drag on indefinitely. Israel will deliver that message again in June with a civil defense exercise that simulates multiple missile strikes on Israeli territory.  Israel will also probably try to weaken Iran’s regional proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah — particularly if a U.S.-led diplomatic track makes airstrikes on Iran less feasible.

The next three months will represent a period of heightened risk ahead of Iran’s presidential elections on June 12. In addition to the Israeli warnings, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could face a tough challenge from Mir Hossein Mousavi, a popular former prime minister who has criticized Ahmadinejad’s mismanagement of an economy plagued by high inflation and gasoline rationing. Aggressive Israeli rhetoric could provide Ahmadinejad an opportunity to provoke an international crisis to rally Iranians to his government — and to boost his position in the polls.

If Netanyahu’s comments were predictable, Lieberman’s were much stronger than expected. Though consistent with his previous positions on the Palestinians, Lieberman’s statements offered a sharp contrast with Netanyahu’s recent pledge that his government would work to ensure continuity on the Palestinian issue from the previous government to his own.

It’s no surprise that the choice of Avigdor Lieberman will add an element of friction in US-Israeli relations, but his assertion that Israel is not bound by commitments made during the U.S.-brokered Annapolis negotiations will cause some serious heartburn in Washington. The Obama administration believes that a visible commitment to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will restore U.S. credibility across the Middle East and help it advance its diplomatic agenda in other countries. Lieberman’s comments will make the Obama administration’s goal that much harder to achieve for as long as this new Israeli government remains in power.