There’s a new worst Iraq analogy

Inspired by Robert Kaplan’s new FP piece "The Revenge of Geography" (a must-read if I don’t say so myself) Commentary‘s Abe Greenwald responds to a point that I don’t believe Kaplan really ever makes, and argues that Iraq today is more like contemporary Vietnam than Vietnam-war era Vietnam: Can Kaplan cite a year, a period, ...

By , a former associate editor at Foreign Policy.

Inspired by Robert Kaplan's new FP piece "The Revenge of Geography" (a must-read if I don't say so myself) Commentary's Abe Greenwald responds to a point that I don't believe Kaplan really ever makes, and argues that Iraq today is more like contemporary Vietnam than Vietnam-war era Vietnam:

Inspired by Robert Kaplan’s new FP piece "The Revenge of Geography" (a must-read if I don’t say so myself) Commentary‘s Abe Greenwald responds to a point that I don’t believe Kaplan really ever makes, and argues that Iraq today is more like contemporary Vietnam than Vietnam-war era Vietnam:

Can Kaplan cite a year, a period, a phase of Vietnam’s existence that resembles today’s Iraq?

Actually, I can. Vietnam, circa 2009. If Iraq bears any resemblance to Vietnam then it does so in regard to today’s Vietnam, not the lawless and flaming jungles of decades past. Don’t take my word for it. Freedomhouse in 2008 gave Iraq a score of six on political rights and a score of six on civil liberties. The same year, it gave Vietnam scores of seven and five, respectively. On average, in regard to freedom (not an insignificant indicator of national health), the two countries are identical.

However, the analogy between the two present-day states admittedly does crumble upon the airing of more data. The Economist’s democracy index from 2008 ranked Iraq at 116 out of 167 countries in terms of viable democracy, and places it in the class of “Hybrid Regimes.” It ranked Vietnam down at 149, and listed its government under “Authoritarian Regimes.”

Leaving aside the fact that this isn’t really what Kaplan’s article is about at all, is this really all the data that Greenwald feels he needs to back up this assertion? Freedom House’s rankings aren’t meant to measure "national health," they measure exactly what they say they do: social and political freedom. Yes, Iraq has a better score than Vietnam, but the Democratic Republic of Congo (speaking of "flaming jungles") and Afghanistan have better scores than both of them. On the Economist democracy ranking he cites, they both trail Sierra Leone and Haiti. Would Iraq (or Vietnam) be better off if they were more like those places?

Perhaps, if I may make a radical suggestion, there might just be other indicators besides democracy rankings that one should take into account when comparing the progress of two countries. As just a starting point, I might suggest taking a look at FP and the Fund for Peace’s Failed States Index. On the 2008 index, Iraq was ranked world’s fifth most unstable state while Vietnam came in at 95th.

But if Greenwald would really be supportive of expending U.S. resources and lives to make Iraq more like Congo, the data he’s using is just fine.

Joshua Keating was an associate editor at Foreign Policy. Twitter: @joshuakeating

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