Grading Obama’s first 100 days: Dov Zakheim

I would give him a B-/C+.

The Obama team means well, but they have not thought through the consequences of many of their initiatives. It is all very nice to speak to Iran, but at what point does the talking stop? Most of the Arab states are very nervous: Egypt’s foreign minister almost routinely denounces Iran; Morocco has broken off diplomatic relations; and the Gulf States (minus Qatar) resent Tehran’s description of Bahrain as its fourteenth province (shades of Saddam’s equivalent description of Kuwait in 1990). The Israelis, increasingly worried by America’s posture, seem ever more trigger happy and are deadly serious about a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities if negotiations seem to run on endlessly.

The administration is right to attempt to reach an understanding with Russia. But Moscow’s negotiators are as tough as ever they were during the old Soviet days, and they have thus far insisted that any accommodation on the "Third Site" program in Poland and the Czech Republic will not trigger reciprocity in terms of pressure on Iran. Russia’s interest in Tehran is driven by business objectives, and those have hardly disappeared.

The administration made the right move against the Somali pirates — but that was a one-off affair. Our shrunken Navy cannot patrol all of the waters in which pirates prey on merchant shipping. So where do we go from here?

The same question might be asked about talks or any kind of relationship with North Korea after its firing of another long-range missile over Japan. Pyongyang evidently feels it can get away with just about anything while Washington is preoccupied in the Middle East and Central Asia. So far it has.

The administration did the right thing by focusing on Turkey and, half a world away, Mexico. But Turkey will not get into the EU just because President Obama says so. The EU has enough internal problems of its own, and it is wary of meddling by a powerful non-member. Mexico, for its part, likewise is wary of American intentions. The Mexican challenge is a serious one, but requires great delicacy on the part of Washington. Our neighbor to the south has not yet forgotten the incursion to catch Pancho Villa — nor, for that matter, the Battle of Veracruz.

The administration’s announcement of a troop withdrawal from Iraq was welcomed by all — until the Kurds became even more nervous about Kirkuk while the Shi’a authorities began turning on the Sunni Awakening’s leaders. Withdrawal is going to be a lot more painful than the administration would like. And if Israel does indeed strike Iran, withdrawal in the face of an Iranian response against America (which will be blamed as complicit in the strike despite its clear opposition to it) may be difficult to implement at all.

Finally, the administration’s new policy direction and emphasis regarding Afghanistan and Pakistan seems appropriate and long overdue — as long as it does not enmesh itself in internal Pakistani politics. Nawaz Sharif is hardly a godsend, as some State Department officials wistfully believe. The administration may yet rue the day that Musharraf departed from the scene.

All in all, the intentions are good, the execution is uncertain, and the third and fourth order ramifications of both have yet to be addressed. I end where I began: B-/C+.

—Dov Zakehim