The new old South Africa
Most commentators on yesterday’s elections in South Africa have used words like “landmark” or “historic” to describe the vote. And yes, perhas as the fourth democratic vote in the country’s post-apartheid history, the elections still deserve the title. But the big news that the ANC’s lead is down slightly from previous years (from 70 percent ...
Most commentators on yesterday’s elections in South Africa have used words like “landmark” or “historic” to describe the vote. And yes, perhas as the fourth democratic vote in the country’s post-apartheid history, the elections still deserve the title.
But the big news that the ANC’s lead is down slightly from previous years (from 70 percent to about 65 percent) should not be read too carefully as a change. As Raenette Taljaard points out in her Think Again: South Africa on FP, the near-one-party state that has entrenched the ruling African National Congress (ANC) shows no signs of fading. In fact, if anything, those structure of power and patronage are more entrenched than ever.
What is perhaps more interesting is the boost in voter turnout — at a high 77 percent. The speaks not just to an enthusiasm for democracy. It also indicates just how polarizing this election became. Jacob Zuma, now almost assured to be President, drives crowds towards him and way from him, on the one side eager for Zuma’s promises to speed the slow pace of change for the impoverished majority, and on the other fearful that his impudence and possible corruption could see South Africa look a bit too much like other, less proserpous, African neighbors.
In short, South Africa is in for a telling few years. If Zuma doesn’t live up the high expectations of the working class voters who support him, he may resort to less savory techniques of patronage to stay in power. Then again, if he’s able to improve the lives of the average citizen even a bit, it will be welcome.
ALEXANDER JOE/AFP/Getty Images
Elizabeth Dickinson is International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Colombia.
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