The new old South Africa

Most commentators on yesterday’s elections in South Africa have used words like “landmark” or “historic” to describe the vote. And yes, perhas as the fourth democratic vote in the country’s post-apartheid history, the elections still deserve the title. But the big news that the ANC’s lead is down slightly from previous years (from 70 percent ...

By , International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Colombia.
586481_090423_zuma2.jpg
586481_090423_zuma2.jpg
Ruling party leader Jacob Zuma toasts at the street party in Johannesburg on April 23, 2009. Zuma said he could smell victory in general elections, addressing 2,000 cheering supporters at the African National Congress party headquarters. "We know that counting is still going on, but we can smell a 70 percent" majority, said Zuma, wearing a black and yellow leather jacket on a stage where he danced with singers as firecrackers popped and champagne flowed under a shower of confetti. AFP PHOTO / ALEXANDER JOE (Photo credit should read ALEXANDER JOE/AFP/Getty Images)

Most commentators on yesterday’s elections in South Africa have used words like “landmark” or “historic” to describe the vote. And yes, perhas as the fourth democratic vote in the country’s post-apartheid history, the elections still deserve the title.

But the big news that the ANC’s lead is down slightly from previous years (from 70 percent to about 65 percent) should not be read too carefully as a change. As Raenette Taljaard points out in her Think Again: South Africa on FP, the near-one-party state that has entrenched the ruling African National Congress (ANC) shows no signs of fading. In fact, if anything, those structure of power and patronage are more entrenched than ever. 

What is perhaps more interesting is the boost in voter turnout — at a high 77 percent. The speaks not just to an enthusiasm for democracy. It also indicates just how polarizing this election became. Jacob Zuma, now almost assured to be President, drives crowds towards him and way from him, on the one side eager for Zuma’s promises to speed the slow pace of change for the impoverished majority, and on the other fearful that his impudence and possible corruption could see South Africa look a bit too much like other, less proserpous, African neighbors. 

In short, South Africa is in for a telling few years. If Zuma doesn’t live up the high expectations of the working class voters who support him, he may resort to less savory techniques of patronage to stay in power. Then again, if he’s able to improve the lives of the average citizen even a bit, it will be welcome.

ALEXANDER JOE/AFP/Getty Images

Elizabeth Dickinson is International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Colombia.

More from Foreign Policy

Residents evacuated from Shebekino and other Russian towns near the border with Ukraine are seen in a temporary shelter in Belgorod, Russia, on June 2.
Residents evacuated from Shebekino and other Russian towns near the border with Ukraine are seen in a temporary shelter in Belgorod, Russia, on June 2.

Russians Are Unraveling Before Our Eyes

A wave of fresh humiliations has the Kremlin struggling to control the narrative.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva shake hands in Beijing.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva shake hands in Beijing.

A BRICS Currency Could Shake the Dollar’s Dominance

De-dollarization’s moment might finally be here.

Keri Russell as Kate Wyler in an episode of The Diplomat
Keri Russell as Kate Wyler in an episode of The Diplomat

Is Netflix’s ‘The Diplomat’ Factual or Farcical?

A former U.S. ambassador, an Iran expert, a Libya expert, and a former U.K. Conservative Party advisor weigh in.

An illustration shows the faces of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin interrupted by wavy lines of a fragmented map of Europe and Asia.
An illustration shows the faces of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin interrupted by wavy lines of a fragmented map of Europe and Asia.

The Battle for Eurasia

China, Russia, and their autocratic friends are leading another epic clash over the world’s largest landmass.