Iran’s voter turnout nailbiter

The AP‘s recent report about Iranian reformist presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi paints an optimistic picture, describing enthusiastic voter outreach campaigns and other exercises of political freedom the country isn’t typically known for. This is all very promising—both for Iran and the United States. But the report misses some fundamental points. Roughly 46 million Iranians ...

The AP's recent report about Iranian reformist presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi paints an optimistic picture, describing enthusiastic voter outreach campaigns and other exercises of political freedom the country isn't typically known for. This is all very promising—both for Iran and the United States. But the report misses some fundamental points.

The AP‘s recent report about Iranian reformist presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi paints an optimistic picture, describing enthusiastic voter outreach campaigns and other exercises of political freedom the country isn’t typically known for. This is all very promising—both for Iran and the United States. But the report misses some fundamental points.

Roughly 46 million Iranians will be eligible to vote on June 12. According to Mousavi’s campaign manager, the chances of Mahmoud Ahmedinejad losing the race shoot up to 65 percent if voter turnout exceeds 32 million. By contrast, he says, the odds of a regime change plummet to just 35 percent if voter turnout is limited to 27 million or fewer. Might this election hinge on five million voters?

If his calculations are correct, a best-case scenario for Mousavi would have to count on 70 percent of eligible voters showing up to the polls. That’s an astronomical number, considering how badly turnout in recent years has been slumping.

Still, keep your eyes out for a surprise—this presidential race is fast becoming one of the most energetic and competitive in the nation’s history.

Brian Fung is an editorial researcher at FP.

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