A good sign for Mousavi?
Late last week, I suggested that Mir Hossein Mousavi, the Iranian reformist presidential candidate, faces a tough uphill battle against incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Today, a Terror Free Tomorrow/New America Foundation poll seems to confirm that analysis, putting Ahmadinejad ahead of Mousavi by as much as 20 percent. Lisa Margonelli and Andrew Sullivan both picked up ...
Late last week, I suggested that Mir Hossein Mousavi, the Iranian reformist presidential candidate, faces a tough uphill battle against incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Today, a Terror Free Tomorrow/New America Foundation poll seems to confirm that analysis, putting Ahmadinejad ahead of Mousavi by as much as 20 percent.
Late last week, I suggested that Mir Hossein Mousavi, the Iranian reformist presidential candidate, faces a tough uphill battle against incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Today, a Terror Free Tomorrow/New America Foundation poll seems to confirm that analysis, putting Ahmadinejad ahead of Mousavi by as much as 20 percent.
Lisa Margonelli and Andrew Sullivan both picked up on the data, with Margonelli predicting "a potential win for the President," but one portion of the study hints that Mousavi, not Ahmadinejad, might actually enjoy the upper hand in this race:
[Eighty-nine] percent of Iranians say that they will cast a vote in the upcoming Presidential elections."
So what? Well, according to Mousavi’s campaign manager, the chances of an Ahmadinejad loss reach 65 percent in models where at least 70 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.
If both the TFT/NAF poll and Mousavi’s campaign are correct, the opposition candidate could put a major dent in Ahmadinejad’s reelection plans.
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