A good sign for Mousavi?

Late last week, I suggested that Mir Hossein Mousavi, the Iranian reformist presidential candidate, faces a tough uphill battle against incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Today, a Terror Free Tomorrow/New America Foundation poll seems to confirm that analysis, putting Ahmadinejad ahead of Mousavi by as much as 20 percent. Lisa Margonelli and Andrew Sullivan both picked up ...

Late last week, I suggested that Mir Hossein Mousavi, the Iranian reformist presidential candidate, faces a tough uphill battle against incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Today, a Terror Free Tomorrow/New America Foundation poll seems to confirm that analysis, putting Ahmadinejad ahead of Mousavi by as much as 20 percent.

Late last week, I suggested that Mir Hossein Mousavi, the Iranian reformist presidential candidate, faces a tough uphill battle against incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Today, a Terror Free Tomorrow/New America Foundation poll seems to confirm that analysis, putting Ahmadinejad ahead of Mousavi by as much as 20 percent.

Lisa Margonelli and Andrew Sullivan both picked up on the data, with Margonelli predicting "a potential win for the President," but one portion of the study hints that Mousavi, not Ahmadinejad, might actually enjoy the upper hand in this race:

[Eighty-nine] percent of Iranians say that they will cast a vote in the upcoming Presidential elections."

So what? Well, according to Mousavi’s campaign manager, the chances of an Ahmadinejad loss reach 65 percent in models where at least 70 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.

If both the TFT/NAF poll and Mousavi’s campaign are correct, the opposition candidate could put a major dent in Ahmadinejad’s reelection plans.

Brian Fung is an editorial researcher at FP.

More from Foreign Policy

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping give a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping give a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21.

Can Russia Get Used to Being China’s Little Brother?

The power dynamic between Beijing and Moscow has switched dramatically.

Xi and Putin shake hands while carrying red folders.
Xi and Putin shake hands while carrying red folders.

Xi and Putin Have the Most Consequential Undeclared Alliance in the World

It’s become more important than Washington’s official alliances today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

It’s a New Great Game. Again.

Across Central Asia, Russia’s brand is tainted by Ukraine, China’s got challenges, and Washington senses another opening.

Kurdish military officers take part in a graduation ceremony in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, on Jan. 15.
Kurdish military officers take part in a graduation ceremony in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, on Jan. 15.

Iraqi Kurdistan’s House of Cards Is Collapsing

The region once seemed a bright spot in the disorder unleashed by U.S. regime change. Today, things look bleak.