Then again, maybe they won’t*
Apropos of John Bolton’s op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal, asking "What If Israel Strikes Iran?" here’s a persuasive prebuttal from CFR analyst Steven Cook: Every three weeks or so, within a few hours of one Israeli leader or another making a statement about the threat of Iran’s nuclear program, my phone starts lighting up. ...
Apropos of John Bolton's op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal, asking "What If Israel Strikes Iran?" here's a persuasive prebuttal from CFR analyst Steven Cook:
Apropos of John Bolton’s op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal, asking "What If Israel Strikes Iran?" here’s a persuasive prebuttal from CFR analyst Steven Cook:
Every three weeks or so, within a few hours of one Israeli leader or another making a statement about the threat of Iran’s nuclear program, my phone starts lighting up. It’s never the press, which has become inured to Israel’s periodic warnings. Rather, it is nervous hedge fund managers and securities research analysts calling to find out if this is "it." Are the Israelis on the verge of attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities? No doubt, should Israel launch airstrikes against the Bushehr reactor or the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, it would be a market-shaking event. "No," I assure the financial whiz kids on the other end of the line, explaining that "if Israel’s leaders were going to strike, they would not be broadcasting it to the world." The phone will then go quiet for a few weeks until the next time Shimon Peres, Ehud Barak, Benjamin Netanyahu, an Israeli security consultant, or my cousin Ari warns that time is running out.
*Free subscription to ForeignPolicy.com for the reader who gets this reference.
More from Foreign Policy

Saudi-Iranian Détente Is a Wake-Up Call for America
The peace plan is a big deal—and it’s no accident that China brokered it.

The U.S.-Israel Relationship No Longer Makes Sense
If Israel and its supporters want the country to continue receiving U.S. largesse, they will need to come up with a new narrative.

Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War
Moscow is grasping for meaning in a meaningless invasion.

How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests
And why there’s less to Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough than meets the eye.