The “Obama effect” and other faith-based claims
By Christian Brose I’m really getting tired of things like this: But privately Obama advisers are crediting his Cairo speech for inspiring the protesters, especially the young ones, who are now posing the most direct challenge to the republic’s Islamic authority in its 30-year history. One senior administration official with experience in the Middle East ...
I’m really getting tired of things like this:
But privately Obama advisers are crediting his Cairo speech for inspiring the protesters, especially the young ones, who are now posing the most direct challenge to the republic’s Islamic authority in its 30-year history.
One senior administration official with experience in the Middle East said, "There clearly is in the region a sense of new possibilities," adding that "I was struck in the aftermath of the president’s speech that there was a connection. It was very sweeping in terms of its reach."
This, too, from later in the same article:
Obama’s advisers say the outreach may have contributed to the defeat in Lebanese elections a few days later of a coalition led by Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed party, that had been predicted to win. In recent days, administration officials have pointed to the Iranian demonstrations as further evidence of Obama’s possible influence in the region.
As a rule, I try not to make claims for which there is no discernable evidence (extolling my own virtue aside). In part, this is because I remember how we in the last administration tried to make the argument that our rhetoric of freedom helped to explain the remarkable events of 2005: Mahmoud Abbas’s election as Palestinian president, all those purple fingers in Iraq, the Cedar Revolution that ended Syria’s occupation of Lebanon, and so on. In retrospect, it turns out it was about them, not us.
I’m not saying that Obama’s speech in Cairo or his general approach to the Middle East did not "inspire" the outcome of Lebanon’s election or "influence" the recent uprising in Iran. But I have not seen, read, or heard one fact that leads me to believe how this is the case, nor does the unnamed source above offer anything beyond faith-based assertions. So until some evidence is presented, I’ll continue to hold my default position, which is that the behavior of Lebanese and Iranians — and plenty of other peoples as well — has virtually everything to do with their own personal, social, economic, and political circumstances and little at all to do with Barack Obama, George W. Bush, or the United States of America, no matter how much we wish it were so.
More from Foreign Policy
Saudi-Iranian Détente Is a Wake-Up Call for America
The peace plan is a big deal—and it’s no accident that China brokered it.
The U.S.-Israel Relationship No Longer Makes Sense
If Israel and its supporters want the country to continue receiving U.S. largesse, they will need to come up with a new narrative.
Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War
Moscow is grasping for meaning in a meaningless invasion.
How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests
And why there’s less to Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough than meets the eye.
Sign up for Morning Brief
Foreign Policy’s flagship daily newsletter with what’s coming up around the world today. Delivered weekdays.
By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time.
