What will Clinton say to ousted Honduran president?

Manuel Zelaya, July 5, 2009   Secretary Clinton will be meeting with Manuel Zelaya, the ousted Honduran president, this afternoon in what will be the highest level of interaction between Zelaya and the Obama administration since his June 28 ouster. What will Clinton say to him? Senior U.S. officials declined to tell the Washington Post ...

583956_090707_Zelaya2.jpg
583956_090707_Zelaya2.jpg

 

Manuel Zelaya, July 5, 2009

Manuel Zelaya, July 5, 2009
 

Secretary Clinton will be meeting with Manuel Zelaya, the ousted Honduran president, this afternoon in what will be the highest level of interaction between Zelaya and the Obama administration since his June 28 ouster.

What will Clinton say to him? Senior U.S. officials declined to tell the Washington Post what Clinton would say, other than reiterating the need for democratic and constitutional order in Honduras.

Clinton could threaten to pull the plug on U.S. aid, which is conditioned on Honduras’s maintaining its democratic system. Last week she implied that if the rule of law was reestablished in a “relatively short period of time,” aid to the country wouldn’t be in jeopardy. More than a week has passed since the coup, and two Zelaya supporters were killed Sunday, so it doesn’t look as if Honduras is meeting the conditions for aid.

The Obama administration still recognizes Zelaya as the official president of Honduras (and not Roberto Micheletti, the de facto president), so perhaps the U.S. government foresees Zelaya’s return to power. Clinton could perhaps suggest that he be returned to power if he meets certain demands, such as behaving lawfully and in line with the Honduran Constitution. Large chunks of Honduran society don’t want him back as president, though (not surprising given that he was taking illegal steps in an attempt to stay in office), so that idea probably won’t go over well in Honduras.

Clinton can insist on democratic and constitutional order, but how do you operationalize that? Should Zelaya be reinstated (because was unlawfully removed in a coup)? If he is reinstated, should Hondurans then go through the official democratic process of removing him from office if they so strongly want him out? Does it make sense to reinstate a man who didn’t want to follow the rule of law? Does it make sense to recognize a new president who didn’t follow the rule of law to get to power?

Clinton has a lot to think about between now and her afternoon meeting.

Photo: Oscar Galdamez/AFP/Getty Images

Preeti Aroon was copy chief at Foreign Policy from 2009 to 2016 and was an FP assistant editor from 2007 to 2009. Twitter: @pjaroonFP

More from Foreign Policy

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping give a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping give a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21.

Can Russia Get Used to Being China’s Little Brother?

The power dynamic between Beijing and Moscow has switched dramatically.

Xi and Putin shake hands while carrying red folders.
Xi and Putin shake hands while carrying red folders.

Xi and Putin Have the Most Consequential Undeclared Alliance in the World

It’s become more important than Washington’s official alliances today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

It’s a New Great Game. Again.

Across Central Asia, Russia’s brand is tainted by Ukraine, China’s got challenges, and Washington senses another opening.

Kurdish military officers take part in a graduation ceremony in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, on Jan. 15.
Kurdish military officers take part in a graduation ceremony in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, on Jan. 15.

Iraqi Kurdistan’s House of Cards Is Collapsing

The region once seemed a bright spot in the disorder unleashed by U.S. regime change. Today, things look bleak.