Best Defense

Thomas E. Ricks' daily take on national security.

Iraq, the unraveling (XX): “Time to declare victory and go home?”

Colonel Timothy Reese’s suggestion is appealing, of course. And he is good in listing everything that is going wrong. Reading his lists, you’d almost think the situation in Iraq is unraveling: The ineffectiveness and corruption of GOI Ministries is the stuff of legend. The anti-corruption drive is little more than a campaign tool for Maliki ...

582846_090730_unraveling2010.jpg
582846_090730_unraveling2010.jpg

Colonel Timothy Reese's suggestion is appealing, of course. And he is good in listing everything that is going wrong. Reading his lists, you'd almost think the situation in Iraq is unraveling:

The ineffectiveness and corruption of GOI Ministries is the stuff of legend.
The anti-corruption drive is little more than a campaign tool for Maliki
The GOI is failing to take rational steps to improve its electrical infrastructure and to improve their oil exploration, production and exports.
There is no progress towards resolving the Kirkuk situation.
Sunni Reconciliation is at best at a standstill and probably going backwards.
Sons of Iraq (SOI) or Sahwa transition to ISF and GOI civil service is not happening, and SOI monthly paydays continue to fall further behind.
The Kurdish situation continues to fester.
Political violence and intimidation is rampant in the civilian community as well as military and legal institutions.
The Vice President received a rather cool reception this past weekend and was publicly told that the internal affairs of Iraq are none of the US's business.

Colonel Timothy Reese’s suggestion is appealing, of course. And he is good in listing everything that is going wrong. Reading his lists, you’d almost think the situation in Iraq is unraveling:

  1. The ineffectiveness and corruption of GOI Ministries is the stuff of legend.
  2. The anti-corruption drive is little more than a campaign tool for Maliki
  3. The GOI is failing to take rational steps to improve its electrical infrastructure and to improve their oil exploration, production and exports.
  4. There is no progress towards resolving the Kirkuk situation.
  5. Sunni Reconciliation is at best at a standstill and probably going backwards.
  6. Sons of Iraq (SOI) or Sahwa transition to ISF and GOI civil service is not happening, and SOI monthly paydays continue to fall further behind.
  7. The Kurdish situation continues to fester.
  8. Political violence and intimidation is rampant in the civilian community as well as military and legal institutions.
  9. The Vice President received a rather cool reception this past weekend and was publicly told that the internal affairs of Iraq are none of the US’s business.

And:

1. If there ever was a window where the seeds of a professional military culture could have been implanted, it is now long past. US combat forces will not be here long enough or with sufficient influence to change it.

2. The military culture of the Baathist-Soviet model under Saddam Hussein remains entrenched and will not change. The senior leadership of the ISF is incapable of change in the current environment.

a) Corruption among officers is widespread

b) Neglect and mistreatment of enlisted men is the norm

c) The unwillingness to accept a role for the NCO corps continues

d) Cronyism and nepotism are rampant in the assignment and promotion system

e) Laziness is endemic

f) Extreme centralization of C2 is the norm

g) Lack of initiative is legion

h) Unwillingness to change, do anything new blocks progress

i) Near total ineffectiveness of the Iraq Army and National Police institutional organizations and systems prevents the ISF from becoming self-sustaining

j) For every positive story about a good ISF junior officer with initiative, or an ISF commander who conducts a rehearsal or an after action review or some individual MOS training event, there are ten examples of the most basic lack of military understanding despite the massive partnership efforts by our combat forces and advisory efforts by MiTT and NPTT teams.

The question the colonel’s memo begs is just how bad it gets after we leave, and whether Turkey, Iran and more intervene more than they have already. What are the chances of a regional war? Feeling lucky, punk? Well, are you?

What happens after we leave? How do we mitigate the damage done? I really don’t see how hanging a “mission accomplished” banner would work any better for the Obama administration than it did for the Bush administration.

Dioboss/Flickr

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military from 1991 to 2008 for the Wall Street Journal and then the Washington Post. He can be reached at ricksblogcomment@gmail.com. Twitter: @tomricks1

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