Pick your letter

One of the Economist‘s leaders this week focuses on the global economy and the nature of the incipient recovery.  They use an alphabet metaphor to explain the possibilities:  The first step in any recovery is for output to stop shrinking. But the more interesting question is what shape the recovery will take. The debate centres ...

By , a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast.

One of the Economist's leaders this week focuses on the global economy and the nature of the incipient recovery.  They use an alphabet metaphor to explain the possibilities: 

One of the Economist‘s leaders this week focuses on the global economy and the nature of the incipient recovery.  They use an alphabet metaphor to explain the possibilities: 

The first step in any recovery is for output to stop shrinking. But the more interesting question is what shape the recovery will take. The debate centres around three scenarios: “V”, “U” and “W”. A V-shaped recovery would be vigorous, as pent-up demand is unleashed. A U-shaped one would be feebler and flatter. And in a W-shape, growth would return for a few quarters, only to peter out once more.

Well, first of all, their description of the "U" trajectory sounds an awful lot like an "L" to me. 

Second of all, if that’s the case, well, it seems they were paying awfully close attention to an obscure report entitled "Alphabet Soup." 

Third of all, if anything, I’m more convinced of the likelihood of the "W" path coming to fruition.  The nature of the Chinese recovery and the absence of any other global economic locomotive is playing a large role in my calculations here.

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner

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