Daily brief: top U.S. commander says more troops or likely “failure” in Afghanistan

All you need are troops

Top U.S. and NATO commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal warned in an urgent, confidential assessment given to Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Aug. 30 that without more troops, the war in Afghanistan “will likely result in failure” (Washington Post; Assessment). The 66-page report details, among many topics, the three-headed insurgency NATO is facing: the Quetta Shura Taliban headed by Mullah Omar, the Haqqani network in southeastern Afghanistan, and Hezb-e-Islami, led by former mujaheddin commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Gen. McChrystal also observes that the Afghan prison system has become “a sanctuary and base to conduct lethal operations” against pro-government forces.

Gen. McChrystal’s war review, however, is only “one input” into U.S. President Barack Obama’s decision-making process, two senior administration officials told Rajiv Chandrasekaran and Karen DeYoung, and he has prepared but not yet submitted a separate resource request to the Pentagon (Washington Post). On Sunday’s talk show circuit, Obama expressed a “new skepticism” about sending more troops to Afghanistan unless there is a clear strategy (New York Times, New York Times, and BBC).

Growth and presence

The growing insurgency in Afghanistan, detailed by Gen. McChrystal, has led the CIA to establish more bases there, deploying a team of spies, analysts, and paramilitary operatives in addition to the nearly 700 Agency employees already in the country (Bloomberg and Los Angeles Times). From just a few operatives in Afghanistan after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the agency’s presence jumped to 150 by the end of 2001 and 300 by the end of 2005.

The militant insurgency is only one obstacle Afghanistan faces; nearly one in four ballots in the August 20 presidential election is now subject to a recount, according to a New York Times analysis, suggesting fraud on a far greater scale than has previously been understood (New York Times). And benefiting from the ongoing confusion around the election is none other than the Afghan Taliban, whose reclusive, one-eyed leader Mullah Omar released a message timed to the celebration of Eid al-Fitr, the end of the fasting month of Ramadan, calling incumbent Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s government “a corrupt and stooge administration” (Washington Post, CNN, AFP).

On a goodwill mission from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, best-selling author Khaled Hosseini, who penned the controversial novel The Kite Runner, recently visited Afghanistan with the intent of raising awareness among Western donors (Washington Post). Hosseini had to visit his home country anonymously due to the simmering ethnic tensions his book illustrates, reports veteran Afghanistan correspondent Pamela Constable.

Qaeda in Colorado?

The ringleader of an alleged plot to detonate explosives inside the United States was arrested Saturday night, and documents released on Sunday show that Najibullah Zazi, the 24-year-old Afghan resident of Colorado, had nine pages of handwritten notes on how to handle and build bombs (New York Times, CNN, AP). Zazi, his father, and an imam in New York were charged with lying to federal investigators but have not yet been charged with any terrorism-related activities (Los Angeles Times, Denver Post, NPR). Officials told NPR there are more charges coming.

Zazi’s computer reportedly shows that he was researching sports stadiums and the site of the recent Fashion Week in New York City, and told FBI agents during three days of interrogation last week that he had received explosives training from al Qaeda operatives in Pakistan (ABC News, Wall Street Journal). All three men arrested are due in federal court this morning and face a possible eight years in prison if convicted, and in a twist, the imam from Queens, Ahmad Afzali, was purportedly an FBI informant who turned double agent and tipped off Zazi and his father to the investigation (AP, Reuters, New York Daily News, Bloomberg).

The kind of thing that money just can’t buy

Pakistani police reported raided the offices of a local company contracted to provide security to the U.S. embassy in Islamabad on Saturday and seized over 70 allegedly illegal firearms (AFP, BBC). The raid on Inter-Risk is especially sensitive because of recent rumors that the security firm formerly known as Blackwater could be hired to protect an expanded U.S. embassy in Islamabad, but the U.S. denies these reports (AP, Daily Times).

As the United States prepares to triple aid to Pakistan, Obama administration officials are fretting about how much money to give a government widely accused of corruption, reports longtime regional observer Jane Perlez (New York Times). Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is meeting with Obama later this week in New York City and assistance is expected to be a major topic; one project under consideration that would help improve security and gain public support is a $25 million plan to repair and expand the Ring Road around Peshawar, the capital of the North-West Frontier Province.

Home to stay

Feared Taliban commander Sher Mohammed Qasab died in Pakistani custody on Sunday from gunshot wounds sustained during the firefight in which he was captured last week (AP, CNN, Daily Times, Dawn). On the other hand, a pro-government military commander who led a “revolt” against erstwhile Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud has turned in his weapons to protest Pakistani authorities’ policy that weapons are not allowed to be displayed in the troubled tribal district of Tank (Dawn). Turkistan Bhittani’s followers are expected to do the same.

Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, whose Muslim charity Jamaat-ud-Dawa fronts for the banned militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, has been placed under house arrest in Lahore, Pakistan, as seven suspects in the allegedly LeT-run terrorist attacks in Mumbai last November will reportedly be charged this week (New York Times, BBC, New York Times, AP).

Breaking barriers at mach speed

Seven women can now fly Pakistan’s fighter jets, which for the last six decades have only been piloted by men (CNN). Some of the women choose to wear the Muslim headdress known as the hijab, but not all, and one cadet explained to CNN, “We can do everything better than the men.”

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Pete Souza/The White House via Getty Images