Mass Conversions
When the Economist ran God’s obituary in its 1999 millennium issue, many readers surely considered it a tad premature. After all, from the ballot box to the battlefield, the almighty shows little sign of disappearing today. By 2050, 80 percent of the world is expected to belong to one of the four main religions — ...
When the Economist ran God's obituary in its 1999 millennium issue, many readers surely considered it a tad premature. After all, from the ballot box to the battlefield, the almighty shows little sign of disappearing today. By 2050, 80 percent of the world is expected to belong to one of the four main religions -- Buddhism, Christianity, Hinduism, and Islam -- up from 73 percent in 2005. How these faiths spread, stagnate, or turn more conservative will greatly influence the world's economies, conflicts, and public life.
When the Economist ran God’s obituary in its 1999 millennium issue, many readers surely considered it a tad premature. After all, from the ballot box to the battlefield, the almighty shows little sign of disappearing today. By 2050, 80 percent of the world is expected to belong to one of the four main religions — Buddhism, Christianity, Hinduism, and Islam — up from 73 percent in 2005. How these faiths spread, stagnate, or turn more conservative will greatly influence the world’s economies, conflicts, and public life.
One of the factors most critical to determining the religious complexion of a society is its frequency of conversions. Using global surveys of religious adherence taken over three decades, Robert Barro, a professor of economics at Harvard University, found that in countries with a diversity of religions and a more educated population, a greater percentage of people converted from one faith to another. Some of the leaders include Canada (17 percent), the United States (16 percent), and Chile (13 percent). Conversely, countries with a history of communism or government restrictions on beliefs tend to have far lower conversion rates. He found that other factors, like income, the existence of a state religion, or how religious a country already is, mattered little.
Using Barro’s findings, it’s possible to predict where religious conversions may be more or less likely in the future. Countries such as Afghanistan, Iran, Nepal, Pakistan, and Turkey top his list of places to expect very few conversions in the years to come. It’s no coincidence that these countries struggle with stability. "Restrictions on religious freedom tend to correlate with repression generally, and also with violence and instability," says Paul Marshall, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Religious Freedom.
Australia, South Korea, and the United States will likely experience some of the largest migrations between faiths. Because converts in any country are often more likely to promote the political and economic interests of their new faith, these countries can expect religion to take an ever greater role in shaping national debates. If a "person adopts a religion rather than just inherits it, they have made a choice," says Marshall. "They tend to be much more fervent." It doesn’t require a leap of faith to see how converts could inspire political tensions down the road.
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