Failed States 2007: Long Division

What holds back many of the world's most fragile regimes is that they were never truly in charge in the first place.

When it comes to assessing state failure, some countries emerge with split personalities. That is, states may be the picture of stability, peace, and economic growth in some areas, yet no-go zones in others. A dozen countries among the 60 most vulnerable contain "virtual states," areas that are essentially self-governing, but claimed by the central government.

When it comes to assessing state failure, some countries emerge with split personalities. That is, states may be the picture of stability, peace, and economic growth in some areas, yet no-go zones in others. A dozen countries among the 60 most vulnerable contain "virtual states," areas that are essentially self-governing, but claimed by the central government.

In the former Soviet republic of Georgia, the two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have built parallel governing structures. Both regions, heavily supported by Russian security forces and economic aid, continue to reject Tbilisi’s authority. In Colombia, the narcoterrorist insurgency movement FARC controls a large swath of territory and is known to provide both basic social services and security to the people living outside of Bogotá’s reach. And the former British protectorate of Somaliland declared independence from Mogadishu in 1991, despite falling within the internationally recognized borders of the Somali state.

Governments will often go to great lengths to regain such breakaway regions, and their efforts can be tremendously costly. A brutal 2002 civil war aimed at retaking the rebel-held northern half of the Ivory Coast split the country in two, blunting its otherwise impressive economic growth and leaving thousands of U.N. forces to keep the peace. In Pakistan, government efforts to crack down on suspected al Qaeda operatives in the restive border regions have led to violent protests. And attempts by the Sri Lankan government to regain territory from the Tamil Tigers last year sparked some of the worst violence in the country in years.

Ultimately, some countries, such as Slovakia and the Czech Republic, have found greater stability and prosperity as separate entities. Serbia and Montenegro split peacefully in June 2006, unusual in a region where separation usually comes at the cost of bloodshed. But for the split-personality states that appear on this year’s index, the decision to go separate ways seems remote. And that may make their hopes for stability equally unlikely.

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