Warm New World
Al Gore may have educated many people about the inconvenient truths of global warming, but some of climate change’s more remote effects are only beginning to cross scientists’ radar. A European team of academic researchers have just assessed what a 5-degree rise in temperature will mean for tourist travel by the end of the century. ...
Al Gore may have educated many people about the inconvenient truths of global warming, but some of climate change's more remote effects are only beginning to cross scientists' radar. A European team of academic researchers have just assessed what a 5-degree rise in temperature will mean for tourist travel by the end of the century. They analyzed travel flows between and within more than 200 countries using a model developed at the University of Hamburg that factors in population growth, economic development, and changing climate conditions. Their conclusion? The world of tourist travel is about to be turned upside down. "What struck us most was that people from Britain and Germany would spend much more time in their own countries because the weather would improve so much," says Richard S.J. Tol, one of the study's authors.
Al Gore may have educated many people about the inconvenient truths of global warming, but some of climate change’s more remote effects are only beginning to cross scientists’ radar. A European team of academic researchers have just assessed what a 5-degree rise in temperature will mean for tourist travel by the end of the century. They analyzed travel flows between and within more than 200 countries using a model developed at the University of Hamburg that factors in population growth, economic development, and changing climate conditions. Their conclusion? The world of tourist travel is about to be turned upside down. "What struck us most was that people from Britain and Germany would spend much more time in their own countries because the weather would improve so much," says Richard S.J. Tol, one of the study’s authors.
Some destinations will melt off people’s list of dream vacations. Jamaica, for example, will see a 39 percent decline in its share of the tourist trade. Aruba faces a 42 percent drop. Other places that are currently out in the cold, like Norway, will find themselves embraced by the world’s vacationers. The biggest winners, though, are Canada, with a whopping 220 percent increase, and Russia, with a 174 percent rise.
The bad news for the destinations that will become too hot to handle is that there is little they can do — besides become less dependent on tourism. The discerning traveler, though, can prepare for this warmer world. Tol recommends purchasing property in "coastal areas that are currently on the fringe of the tourist area. So, more toward northern Portugal than southern Portugal and toward Brittany rather than Provence. In the longer term, the Baltic coasts of Germany and Denmark and, of course, southern England." If the prospect of eating English food in the summertime doesn’t make the world deal with climate change, nothing will.
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