Talking Tehran

Few experts know more about Tehran than Iranian exile Abbas Milani, co-director of the Hoover Institution's Iran Democracy project. In recent months, Milani has briefed President George W. Bush and other senior U.S. officials on what to do about Iran. FP spoke with him about how to solve the Persian puzzle.

Foreign Policy: Why is Iran developing a bomb?

Foreign Policy: Why is Iran developing a bomb?

Abbas Milani: The regime is keen on developing [the bomb] because it sees its own survival as being dependent on it. [The Iranians] think they are going to have a confrontation with the United States, and they think that if they have the bomb, they will get the North Korean treatment rather than the Saddam treatment.

FP: How do you think the regime will behave if it has the bomb?

AM: The most serious consequence is that it will delay the onset of democracy for at least a couple more decades, because this regime will become much more assertive and repressive in dealing with democratic forces. [The bomb] will make it impervious to outside pressure.

FP: How can the United States assist the democracy movement in Iran?

AM: Counterintuitively, the way to help the democratic movement is to end the embargo, which is hurting the people of Iran, and replace it with smart sanctions that bring pressure on the regime. Make its illicit gains, its credibility in the world, a matter of pressure. If you know anything about the mullahs, you know that there is one thing that is very dear to them, and that is their bank account[s].

FP: Do you favor direct talks between Tehran and Washington?

AM: Direct talks are essential at this stage. But it is crucial that you do it in a way that preserves what is very worthy capital right now: the goodwill of the Iranian people toward the United States.

FP: Will the mullahs still be in charge in 10 years, or will Iran be a democracy?

AM: If I were a betting man, [I’d] bet on democracy. If the regime can’t solve the economic problems now, when oil is at its all-time high, when will they ever solve it? They are not going to solve it, because this is a kleptomaniacal regime.

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