Natural Dangers

The destruction of New Orleans reminded us all of the awesome power of nature. But many had warned about the possibility of bad days for the Big Easy. FP highlights some other cities that could make nature's hit list.

Tehran, Iran

Tehran, Iran

Possible event: Earthquake
Scenario: A lack of effective building regulation means that few of the city’s existing structures have been designed to withstand a seismic event. In the case of a direct hit, up to one third of Tehran’s population of 8 million could perish.
Casualties: More than 1 million people
Estimated cost: $3 billion


Buenos Aires, Argentina

Possible event: Storm surge
Scenario: A surge caused by a tropical cyclone would result in flooding of the River Plate, which would overwhelm the levees surrounding the Boca area, home to much of the city’s poor.
Casualties: 300–1,000 people
Estimated cost: $450 million


Monterey Bay, California

Possible event: Tsunami
Scenario: A landslide in Monterey Canyon would cause a tsunami that could hit the bay within 6 to 10 minutes, defeating the Pacific coast’s early warning system. The waves could be as high as 20 feet.
Casualties: 1,000–3,000 people
Estimated cost: More than $1 billion


Shimla, India

Possible event: Earthquake
Scenario: Shimla, the summer capital of British India, lies on the main fault line of the Indian plate and stands at approximately 6,500 feet above sea level. Because the city was built on steep slopes, a strong earthquake would cause buildings to collapse onto each other and result in thousands of deaths.
Casualties: 25,000 people
Estimated cost: Incalculable; the historic old city could not be rebuilt.

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