The White House’s mixed messages on troops

Imagine you’re a tribal chief in Kandahar. You have to choose a side: either support the government in Kabul and its U.S. allies, or go over to the Taliban. Before you make that decision, it’s very important for you to know the level of American commitment in Afghanistan. If they’re going to increase their troop ...

Imagine you're a tribal chief in Kandahar. You have to choose a side: either support the government in Kabul and its U.S. allies, or go over to the Taliban. Before you make that decision, it's very important for you to know the level of American commitment in Afghanistan. If they're going to increase their troop strength and invest in strengthening the central government, you could do pretty well by joining them. If they're going to pick up and leave in a year, they're going to leave you alone to face some very angry Talibs.

Imagine you’re a tribal chief in Kandahar. You have to choose a side: either support the government in Kabul and its U.S. allies, or go over to the Taliban. Before you make that decision, it’s very important for you to know the level of American commitment in Afghanistan. If they’re going to increase their troop strength and invest in strengthening the central government, you could do pretty well by joining them. If they’re going to pick up and leave in a year, they’re going to leave you alone to face some very angry Talibs.

On Sunday, you hear on al-Jazeera that Rahm Emanuel cautioned against sending additional troops to Afghanistan until after the election, until the United States could determine if they had a "credible Afghan partner." But then, on Monday, you hear that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said that the United States cannot wait for the legitimacy of the Afganistan government to be established before sending more troops.

So, if you’re an Afghan tribal leader, what do you do in the face of the White House’s mixed messages? Most likely, you start to discount the credibility of whatever the U.S. government says.  Even if all parties come together tomorrow and announce a fully-resourced counterinsurgency strategy, there’s going to be that twinge of doubt about what the Americans are going to do the day after tomorrow. For this reason, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that all the White House principals have accomplished by airing their different strategies in public is a further narrowing of President Obama’s options in Afghanistan.

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