Give War a Chance?
The international system’s greatest achievement since World War II has been that the major powers haven’t fought a rematch. But, though the world has successfully skirted another major interstate conflict, the number of civil wars has skyrocketed. There were 127 between 1945 and 2002. Worse, these civil wars are often protracted affairs, sometimes lasting decades. ...
The international system's greatest achievement since World War II has been that the major powers haven't fought a rematch. But, though the world has successfully skirted another major interstate conflict, the number of civil wars has skyrocketed. There were 127 between 1945 and 2002. Worse, these civil wars are often protracted affairs, sometimes lasting decades. The question of how to put out these fires has bedeviled the international community almost as long. But Ann Hironaka, a professor at the University of Minnesota, claims it's time for the great powers to pick a side and force a winner in these conflicts. The world can't stomach letting them just burn themselves out.
The international system’s greatest achievement since World War II has been that the major powers haven’t fought a rematch. But, though the world has successfully skirted another major interstate conflict, the number of civil wars has skyrocketed. There were 127 between 1945 and 2002. Worse, these civil wars are often protracted affairs, sometimes lasting decades. The question of how to put out these fires has bedeviled the international community almost as long. But Ann Hironaka, a professor at the University of Minnesota, claims it’s time for the great powers to pick a side and force a winner in these conflicts. The world can’t stomach letting them just burn themselves out.
For Hironaka, the international system is the problem, not the solution. In her new book, Neverending Wars, she explains how weak states, which are perpetually vulnerable to civil war, survive: the slow but steady drip of foreign aid. Hironaka argues that the international system is responsible for drawing out these conflicts. In the dog-eat-dog world of early-modern Europe, she notes, failed states were "weeded out by more powerful neighbors." "These states aren’t sovereign in the way Western states are," says Hironaka. "Policymakers need to understand what is actually going on."
Many scholars, however, think it is Hironaka who is out of touch. Paul Collier, an economist and Africa expert at Oxford University, says that her theory amounts to the "give war a chance" thesis. But even Collier admits that the way the world handles the spread of civil wars needs to be reconsidered. In his view, Western governments should make security guarantees, not foreign aid, their primary tool for dealing with states that are vulnerable to conflict. Says Collier: "Security guarantees would be cheap compared to aid, and pretty effective." Whether Western governments are prepared to pay the necessary price in blood, though, is another question.
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