Trading in Futures

Forewarned is forearmed -- or, at least, many corporations and governments think so. During the last few years, their willingness to pay for a heads-up on upcoming political and economic events has spawned a cottage industry of firms that offer predictions of the incidents that will shape and shake the world. FP asked four leading firms to offer a forecast for 2005. Their predictions:

Israeli Bombing Raid Strikes Iranian Nuclear Reactor
The Eurasia Group predicts that proof of direct Iranian involvement in support of Palestinian attacks on Israeli civilians will lead Israel to destroy the Iranian nuclear reactor at Bushehr, in southwest Iran. In response, Iran will briefly suspend its oil deliveries, driving crude prices above $60 per barrel.

Israeli Bombing Raid Strikes Iranian Nuclear Reactor
The Eurasia Group predicts that proof of direct Iranian involvement in support of Palestinian attacks on Israeli civilians will lead Israel to destroy the Iranian nuclear reactor at Bushehr, in southwest Iran. In response, Iran will briefly suspend its oil deliveries, driving crude prices above $60 per barrel.


Christian-Muslim Civil War Breaks Out in Nigeria
International Strategic Analysis envisions unrest in Nigeria that will pit Muslims against Christians and regional groups against the central government. The war will destabilize much of West Africa and cause civil unrest from Liberia to the Ivory Coast.


China and Japan Face Off over South China Sea
Stratfor expects that the South China Sea — not the Taiwan Strait — will be Asia’s major flash point in 2005. As Asia’s demand for oil and natural gas surges, so will tensions over the South China Sea’s resources. China has signed a deal with the Philippines for bilateral exploration. Expect Japan to try to compete by inking its own deal with Vietnam.


Syrian President Bashar Assad Forced to Resign
Discontent is on the rise among Syrian elites and the population at large. Oxford Analytica believes powerful insiders will decide it is time to move Assad aside. Expect his departure to take the form of a forced resignation.

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