The Failed States Index 2005: When the Mighty Fall

When a large state falls, everyone hears about it — and some unlucky neighbors may even be brought down with it. Countries in the index’s danger zone include Indonesia (242 million people), Pakistan (162 million), Russia (143 million), and Nigeria (129 million). The Democratic Republic of the Congo (60 million) has in many ways already ...

By Brad Amburn

October 22, 2009, 4:43 PM

When a large state falls, everyone hears about it -- and some unlucky neighbors may even be brought down with it. Countries in the index’s danger zone include Indonesia (242 million people), Pakistan (162 million), Russia (143 million), and Nigeria (129 million). The Democratic Republic of the Congo (60 million) has in many ways already failed more than once, and it is estimated that the resulting conflicts and disease have probably taken at least 3 million lives. The recent experiences of Congo and the former Yugoslavia suggest that state failure on this scale can spin off smaller conflicts that create regional unrest and humanitarian crises. Congo's collapse was, in part, precipitated by Rwanda's turmoil, and it led to the military involvement of at least seven other states. Termed "Africa's first world war," the Congo conflict raised the specter of entire failed regions. Yugoslavia's disintegration, which, when compared to other states, was relatively small, sent refugees pouring into Western Europe and destabilized several neighboring countries. Only after three years and more than 250,000 deaths did the U.S.-led NATO forces restore order.

When a large state falls, everyone hears about it — and some unlucky neighbors may even be brought down with it. Countries in the index’s danger zone include Indonesia (242 million people), Pakistan (162 million), Russia (143 million), and Nigeria (129 million). The Democratic Republic of the Congo (60 million) has in many ways already failed more than once, and it is estimated that the resulting conflicts and disease have probably taken at least 3 million lives. The recent experiences of Congo and the former Yugoslavia suggest that state failure on this scale can spin off smaller conflicts that create regional unrest and humanitarian crises. Congo’s collapse was, in part, precipitated by Rwanda’s turmoil, and it led to the military involvement of at least seven other states. Termed "Africa’s first world war," the Congo conflict raised the specter of entire failed regions. Yugoslavia’s disintegration, which, when compared to other states, was relatively small, sent refugees pouring into Western Europe and destabilized several neighboring countries. Only after three years and more than 250,000 deaths did the U.S.-led NATO forces restore order.

Outside intervention to address state failure becomes a tougher proposition when a large state is in its death throes. On the positive side, because the stakes are so high, a politically and diplomatically engaged international community is more likely. However, the logistical and troop requirements necessary for any effective humanitarian intervention or peacekeeping mission — whether welcomed or not — could be overwhelming. Attempting to establish order in Iraq, which has a population of only 26 million, has stretched the limits of the world’s most capable military. If the failed state were four times as large, it could make the slog in Iraq look like a cakewalk.