Germany’s Silver Lining

Europe’s demographic future has provoked more than a little hand-wringing, not least in Germany, where the prognosis seems especially dire. According to Deutsche Bank, for example, Germany’s population could fall from 80 million to 25 million by 2100. To maintain today’s balance between young and old, Germany needs to accept 3.4 million immigrants annually for ...

Europe's demographic future has provoked more than a little hand-wringing, not least in Germany, where the prognosis seems especially dire. According to Deutsche Bank, for example, Germany's population could fall from 80 million to 25 million by 2100. To maintain today's balance between young and old, Germany needs to accept 3.4 million immigrants annually for the next 50 years -- it currently takes in 200,000 per year. Moreover, the German pension system is on the verge of collapsing under the weight of the growing elderly population.

Europe’s demographic future has provoked more than a little hand-wringing, not least in Germany, where the prognosis seems especially dire. According to Deutsche Bank, for example, Germany’s population could fall from 80 million to 25 million by 2100. To maintain today’s balance between young and old, Germany needs to accept 3.4 million immigrants annually for the next 50 years — it currently takes in 200,000 per year. Moreover, the German pension system is on the verge of collapsing under the weight of the growing elderly population.

Yet, political commentator Konrad Schuller sees a silver lining to Germany’s aging, shrinking population. In an essay that appeared last August in the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonn-tagszeitung, he argues that an older population is wiser and less violent than a relatively young society. The decline in population will also result in more space and resources for those who remain. To support his case, he cites research from a variety of sources. Berlin’s Max Planck Institute, for example, has found that older people score highest in solving societal problems, whether related to marriage, jobs, or teenage growing pains. And political scientists Gary Fuller and Gunner Heinsohn argue that societies with too many 15- to 25-year-olds — the so-called "youth bulge" — tend to have a higher risk of mass killings.

Schuller thinks an aging Europe is actually mapping out the future: "Given the globe’s problems, shrinking Europe is a pilot project rather than an expired concept." David Pimentel, a professor of environmental policy at Cornell University, backs up Schuller’s analysis. He argues that all world populations would need to follow the German lead for 100 years in order to enjoy a decent standard of living in 2103.

Germans should not be afraid, writes Schuller, that their society will soon resemble their cars: "A little expensive, a little boring, yet reliably stable."

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